TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?
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Intro
This market tracks whether StandX's token will reach a fully diluted valuation exceeding $200 million within one day of its public launch. Aggregated across Limitless, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability stands at 72.0%, based on the most liquid price source available and official launch confirmation from @StandX_Official. Watch for the token's launch announcement and initial trading activity, as resolution hinges on FDV measurement at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following when the token becomes actively tradable.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available for StandX token; official StandX Twitter (@StandX_Official) for launch confirmationCore resolution logic:
- Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch event
- Resolution timestamp is 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch confirmation
- Market resolves YES if FDV at resolution timestamp exceeds the specified threshold in the market title
- Market resolves NO if FDV at resolution timestamp is equal to or below the specified threshold
- If StandX does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve NO
- Resolution source is determined by identifying the most liquid price source available at time of resolution
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Launch Definition Ambiguity: Token must meet all three criteria: active status, public transferability, and tradability. Markets will not resolve until all three conditions are simultaneously met.
- Multiple Liquidity Sources: If multiple price sources exist at resolution time, the most liquid source (typically highest trading volume) takes precedence. Platforms should document which source was selected.
- FDV Calculation Methodology: FDV is calculated as token price multiplied by fully diluted token supply. Any discrepancy in supply data between sources should be resolved by selecting the most authoritative source (official StandX documentation).
- Exact Threshold Match: If FDV equals the threshold exactly (e.g., exactly $1B), the market resolves NO, as the criterion requires FDV to be greater than the specified value.
- Deadline Non-Launch: If December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET passes without a qualifying launch, all markets resolve NO regardless of any subsequent token activity.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following the date StandX's token achieves active, publicly transferable, and tradable status. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve NO on that deadline date.Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Limitless
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective assessment of StandX's post-launch valuation based on available information, tokenomics, and market conditions. These odds differ from spot price expectations because they price in execution risk, launch timing uncertainty, and broader crypto market sentiment. While spot prices reflect current trading activity, prediction markets isolate the specific outcome of whether StandX reaches a defined FDV threshold exactly one day after launch. This distinction makes prediction odds a forward-looking gauge of launch success probability, independent of intraday volatility or secondary market pricing.
Limitless and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Limitless and Polymarket typically stem from variations in user base composition, liquidity depth, and risk appetite across platforms. Limitless may attract institutional traders with higher conviction, while Polymarket may see different demographic participation. Arbitrage opportunities, platform-specific fee structures, and timing lags in order matching can also create temporary spreads. Additionally, each platform's unique interface and user experience may influence how traders perceive and price the same StandX launch outcome, leading to natural market inefficiencies that persist until large traders exploit them.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027, marking the official end date for this prediction event. Resolution hinges on whether StandX's fully diluted valuation crosses the specified threshold exactly one day after its launch. The outcome is determined by verifiable on-chain data, official project announcements, and market data sources at the designated resolution timestamp. Traders should monitor StandX's launch announcement and FDV calculations closely as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome will be finalized.
Key catalysts include StandX's official launch date announcement, tokenomics details, exchange listings, and early trading volume. Major partnerships, regulatory clarity, or security audits could boost confidence in a high post-launch valuation. Conversely, delays, technical issues, or broader crypto market downturns could reduce odds. Competitor launches, changes to StandX's roadmap, or shifts in investor sentiment toward similar projects will also influence market pricing. Real-time FDV calculations and early trading metrics in the 24 hours post-launch will be the most direct signals, making launch-day execution critical to final resolution.
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