TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Jun 17, 5:05 PM EST
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 17, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 75 binary contracts at $1 price increments starting at $37.9999, while Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing end-of-period price to start-of-period price.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different measurement times (5 PM midpoint snapshot vs. 4 PM–8 PM full-window comparison), different data sources (CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI vs. Chainlink SOL/USD), and different contract structures (75 price-level binaries vs. single directional binary). These differences create basis risk and potential for non-correlated outcomes.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate bets. Kalshi's outcome depends on where SOL trades at exactly 5 PM according to CF Benchmarks; Polymarket's depends on whether 8 PM Chainlink price exceeds 4 PM Chainlink price. A price that rises from 4 PM to 5 PM but falls by 8 PM could resolve Yes on Kalshi (if 5 PM level is high enough) but Down on Polymarket. Always cross-check the data feeds and timestamps before taking positions.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Offers 75 separate binary contracts indexed to specific price thresholds ($37.9999 through $111.9999). Each contract resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5:00 PM EDT on June 17, 2026 exceeds its threshold. This is a snapshot-based, level-dependent resolution at a single point in time (5 PM). Key Quote: If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.Polymarket:
Offers a single binary contract comparing Solana price at the end of the time window (8:00 PM ET) to the price at the beginning (4:00 PM ET). Resolves Up if end price is greater than or equal to start price; Down otherwise. Uses Chainlink SOL/USD data stream as the authoritative source. This is a directional, full-window comparison. Key Quote: This market will resolve to Up if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI prices collected in the 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT on June 17, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold; if the average price is above that threshold, the outcome resolves to Yes. While external sources like Google or Coinbase may provide reference prices, the official resolution uses only the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect trader beliefs about directional movement, not absolute price targets. When this market shows high odds favoring an up move, it signals collective expectation of bullish momentum during the trading window, though the magnitude remains uncertain. Conversely, down-favoring odds suggest bearish sentiment. These probabilities often diverge from spot price momentum because they incorporate forward-looking sentiment, funding rates, macro catalysts, and on-chain activity that spot prices alone may not immediately reflect. Comparing odds across platforms reveals whether conviction is concentrated or split, helping you gauge true market confidence versus noise.
Kalshi and Polymarket operate under different market-making models, user bases, and liquidity profiles, which naturally creates pricing divergence. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's order flow, fee structure, and risk management approach influence how traders price the same directional outcome. Kalshi may attract institutional flow with tighter spreads, while Polymarket draws retail participation that can create wider bid-ask gaps. Additionally, timing lags in how each platform updates odds during volatile periods can temporarily widen the gap. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricing and execute more profitable trades.
This market resolves around Jun 18, 2026, once the four-hour trading window closes and the directional move can be verified. The outcome is confirmed by comparing Solana's price at the start and end of the specified period, with the result verified against credible public sources including major exchange data and blockchain records. Traders who correctly predicted the direction receive their payout, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake. Resolution is typically finalized within hours of market close, allowing rapid settlement and capital redeployment.
Major catalysts include Solana ecosystem announcements, changes in network activity or validator performance, shifts in broader crypto sentiment, and macroeconomic data releases affecting risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum price action often drive SOL correlation, so movements in larger-cap assets can significantly influence odds. On-chain metrics like transaction volume and developer activity may also sway trader positioning. Additionally, regulatory news, exchange listings, or protocol upgrades could trigger rapid repricing. Monitoring social sentiment, funding rates, and order-book depth across both platforms helps you stay ahead of directional shifts before resolution.
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