TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 16, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 75 binary contracts at $1 price increments starting at $32.9999, while Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing end-of-period price to start-of-period price.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure different time windows, use different data sources (CF Benchmarks vs. Chainlink), and employ different settlement methodologies (60-second average at 5 PM EDT vs. spot price at 8 PM ET). The markets are not directly comparable or hedgeable.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent risk profiles. Kalshi's settlement at 5 PM EDT is 3 hours before Polymarket's 8 PM ET settlement. Price action in the final 3 hours will affect Polymarket but not Kalshi. Verify your data source preference (CF Benchmarks vs. Chainlink) before entering positions.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
75 binary contracts, each resolving Yes if the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific price threshold (ranging from $32.9999 to $106.9999). Settlement occurs at 5 PM EDT, which is the START of the 4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET window, not the end. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Single binary contract resolving Up if Solana price at the end of the 4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Uses Chainlink SOL/USD data stream. Settlement occurs at 8:00 PM ET (end of window). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring if the average price exceeds that threshold. While external sources like Google or Coinbase may provide reference prices, the official resolution uses only CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index data.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about future price movement, often diverging from current spot prices or technical analysis. When this market shows strong odds favoring one direction, it suggests informed participants expect momentum in that direction during the trading window. However, spot price and prediction odds serve different purposes: spot reflects current exchange pricing, while odds encode probabilistic expectations. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in catalysts, volatility, or mean reversion that spot prices alone don't capture.
Kalshi and Polymarket operate under different regulatory frameworks, user bases, and market-making mechanisms. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's order-book model and Polymarket's AMM-style pricing can produce different equilibrium odds for identical outcomes. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and geographic trader concentration also drive wedges between platforms. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, but frictions—withdrawal delays, slippage, and platform-specific rules—often prevent full convergence, making cross-platform comparison valuable for spotting genuine market disagreement.
This market resolves around , after the four-hour trading window closes on June 16, 2026. The outcome is determined by comparing Solana's price at the end of the window against its starting level, with the result verified against credible public sources. Once the price movement is confirmed, the market settles automatically and traders receive payouts based on their position. Resolution is typically finalized within hours of the window's close.
Macro catalysts—Federal Reserve announcements, Bitcoin volatility, or broader crypto sentiment shifts—often drive SOL intraday moves. Network upgrades, validator performance reports, or ecosystem news can spark directional conviction. On-chain metrics like transaction volume and developer activity may influence trader positioning. Liquidation cascades on leveraged platforms can amplify moves in either direction. Close to the window, technical levels and options expiry dynamics often become primary drivers, making the final hours particularly volatile for this market.
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