TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
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Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?
polymarket
predict

Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?

Total volume:
$115,079
Volume 24h:
$66,628N/A
Liquidity:
$160,738
374%
Open interest:
$10,552N/A

↑ 200B HKD

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 200B HKD?

76%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 76¢ buys you 132 shares | Odds: 76% Total Payout: $132 | Net Profit: $32 Multiplier: 1.32x | ROI: 32% | APY: 23% 491 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

↑ 200B HKD

Trade
76%
4%
Yes 76¢No 25¢
$28,756
$16,678
183%
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

↑ 200B HKD

73%
6%
Yes 75¢No 30¢
$2,769
$3,257
16%
32%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
74.5%
Yes 75.5¢No 27.5¢
Avg: Max:
predict

↑ 250B HKD

29%
3%
Yes 30¢No 73¢
$6,892
$4,950
864%
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

↑ 250B HKD

26%
7%
Yes 27¢No 76¢
$1,867
$6,812
17%
24%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
27.5%
Yes 28.5¢No 74.5¢
Avg: Max:
predict

↑ 300B HKD

14%
Yes 15¢No 88¢
$6,311
$20,901
35%
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

↑ 300B HKD

13%
3%
Yes 14.9¢No 89.4¢
4.3¢
$1,241
$4,389
49%
72%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
13.5%
Yes 15¢No 88.7¢
Avg: 3.7¢Max: 4.3¢
predict

↑ 350B HKD

10%
1%
Yes 11¢No 91¢
$8,135
$13,917
491%
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

↑ 350B HKD

8%
3%
Yes No 94¢
$1,281
$5,570
154%
188%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
9%
Yes 10¢No 92.5¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max:
predict

↑ 400B HKD

8%
2%
Yes No 93¢
$101,776
$36,871
308%
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

↑ 400B HKD

6%
2%
Yes 7.5¢No 95.8¢
3.3¢
$1,710
$1,733
22%
43%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
7%
Yes 7.8¢No 94.4¢
Avg: 2.2¢Max: 3.3¢
Total markets: 10

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Shein's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is greater than or equal to the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”. Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. This market will resolve based on market capitalization in Hong Kong Dollars (HKD). If the currency of the primary exchange is not HKD, this market will resolve based on a converted value to HKD, using the conversion rate at the time of market close of the primary exchange on the company's first day of trading. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Shein's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is greater than or equal to the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”. Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. This market will resolve based on market capitalization in Hong Kong Dollars (HKD). If the currency of the primary exchange is not HKD, this market will resolve based on a converted value to HKD, using the conversion rate at the time of market close of the primary exchange on the company's first day of trading. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Shein's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is greater than or equal to the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”. Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. This market will resolve based on market capitalization in Hong Kong Dollars (HKD). If the currency of the primary exchange is not HKD, this market will resolve based on a converted value to HKD, using the conversion rate at the time of market close of the primary exchange on the company's first day of trading. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.