TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Reserve Bank of India decision in August
polymarket
kalshi

Reserve Bank of India decision in August

Total volume:
$30,672
Volume 24h:
$0
100%
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$199
0%

Hike more than 25bps

 - Kalshi

Hike more than 25bps - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 7, 2026

Will the Reserve Bank of India Hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

74%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 62¢ buys you 161 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $161 | Net Profit: $61 Multiplier: 1.61x | ROI: 61% High Projected APY: 6,950% 40 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

Trade
74%
Yes 62¢No 95¢
57¢
N/A
$97
0%
16%
$65
1mo 1w 3d
active
kalshi

Maintain current rate

Trade
17%
Yes 80¢No 69¢
49¢
N/A
$246
0%
0%
$20
1mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

No Change

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,723
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
58.5%
Yes 90¢No 34.5¢
Avg: 24.6¢Max: 49¢
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

Trade
3%
Yes 22¢No 98¢
20¢
N/A
$592
0%
0%
$30
1mo 1w 3d
active
kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 71¢No 95¢
66¢
N/A
$560
0%
0%
$51
1mo 1w 3d
active
kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 56¢No 92¢
48¢
N/A
$79
0%
89%
$33
1mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

Increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,282
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,092
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This group of markets focuses on the Reserve Bank of India's policy repo rate decision following its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The outcomes tracked include potential rate decreases, increases, or maintenance of the current rate.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market scope divergence - Polymarket references August meeting outcomes while Kalshi references October meeting actionsHero tip: Avoid cross-platform hedging between these markets as they reference different policy meetings. Focus resolution monitoring on RBI's official August monetary policy statement for Polymarket markets and October statement for Kalshi markets

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on RBI's August meeting policy repo rate decision relative to pre-meeting level with three distinct outcomes: decrease, increase, or no change
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on RBI's October meeting actions where any rate movement (cut or hike of any size) resolves to Yes, effectively making 'No change' impossible
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026. This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

Contracts resolve based on the official policy rate decision announced by the Reserve Bank of India at its October Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate count; markets resolve to Yes if the RBI takes the specific action outlined in the market (e.g., cut more than 25 basis points, maintain current rate, etc.). If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for 'No change' resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution. Basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., '25-50bp' includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).