TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$91,248,924
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,163,520,955
334,440
Markets across
33,346
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,559
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?
$
Description
This event group tracks whether OpenAI will release the 'Astra' model or a confirmed equivalent by specific dates in 2026. The release must be publicly accessible, not limited to closed beta or private access.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Predict use identical criteria for determining a qualifying release of the Astra model.Primary resolution logic: Official information from OpenAI, supported by consensus of credible reportingCore resolution logic:
- A qualifying release requires the model to be named "Astra" or a confirmed equivalent, and be publicly accessible (open beta or open rolling waitlist signups)
- Closed beta or private access does not satisfy the requirement
- The release must be clearly defined and announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Labeling Errors: Placeholder text or version names on the website that do not correspond to an actually accessible model will not qualify
- GPT-5.7/GPT-6: These labels only count if explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the August 1, 2026 announcement
Polymarket
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Predict
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
