TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by...?
polymarket
opinion

Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by...?

Total volume:
$3,719
Volume 24h:
$58
39%
Liquidity:
$466
17%
Open interest:
$251N/A

September 30

 - Polymarket

September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by September 30, 2026?

46%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 47¢ buys you 213 shares | Odds: 46% Total Payout: $213 | Net Profit: $113 Multiplier: 2.13x | ROI: 113% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

September 30

Trade
46%
3%
Yes 47¢No 55¢
2¢
$185
$3,362
2%
8%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

August 31

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 7¢No 97¢
4¢
$272
$357
0%
6%
N/A
4d 15h 8m
active
polymarket

September 15

Trade
N/A
N/A
44¢
$9
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 5d 15h
active
opinion

530

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

540

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

550

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

560

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

570

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

580

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

590

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

600

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

610

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

620

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

630

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

640

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

650

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks whether Meta will release a Muse Spark model version 1.3 or higher by specified dates in 2026. The markets will resolve based on public accessibility and official announcements from Meta.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets share identical criteria for a qualifying release: public accessibility of Muse Spark 1.3+ within the specified timeframe, verified by Meta's official channels.Primary resolution logic: Official Meta announcements and website listings

Core resolution logic:

  • A 'Yes' outcome requires Meta to release Muse Spark 1.3+ to the general public (open beta or public access) by the market's deadline
  • The model must be explicitly labeled as Muse Spark 1.3 or higher on Meta's official website or in an official announcement
  • Closed betas, private access, or models without 'Muse Spark' in the name or below version 1.3 do not qualify

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Placeholder or labeling error: If Meta's website lists a model as Muse Spark 1.3+ but access remains restricted, the market resolves 'No'
  • Multiple releases within timeframe: Any valid release before the deadline triggers a 'Yes' outcome, even if subsequent versions are released later
Timing: Markets resolve 24 hours after the specified deadline passes, based on verification from Meta's official channelsOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.3+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.3 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.3 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.1 or Muse Spark 1.2 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.3, such as Muse Spark 1.2 (including any open-weight re-release of it), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Meta (META) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Meta (META) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Meta (META), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Meta (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Meta (META) trades governs.