TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
polymarket

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$28,014
Volume 24h:
$4,241
433%
Liquidity:
$33,161
25%
Open interest:
$5,758N/A

No release by September 30

 - Polymarket

No release by September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?

69%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 69¢ buys you 145 shares | Odds: 69% Total Payout: $145 | Net Profit: $45 Multiplier: 1.45x | ROI: 45% High Projected APY: 4,690% 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No release by September 30

Trade
69%
4%
Yes 69¢No 32¢
$3,969
$23,203
22%
385%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

September 30

5%
Yes No 95.9¢
1.9¢
$910
$256
45%
45%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

September 28

4%
Yes 8.3¢No 99.7¢
$871
$258
0%
190%
N/A
1mo 2d
active
polymarket

On or prior to September 1

4%
Yes 6.4¢No 99.2¢
5.6¢
$1,069
$961
0%
230%
N/A
5d 13h 40m
active
polymarket

September 6

3%
Yes No 99.7¢
4.7¢
$822
$170
0%
105%
N/A
1w 3d 13h
active
polymarket

September 14

3%
Yes No 99.7¢
4.7¢
$1,135
$170
0%
193%
N/A
2w 4d 13h
active
polymarket

September 7

2%
Yes 3.7¢No 98.9¢
2.6¢
$1,248
$98
0%
0%
N/A
1w 4d 13h
active
polymarket

September 5

2%
Yes 3.6¢No 99¢
2.6¢
$1,210
$98
0%
0%
N/A
1w 2d 13h
active
polymarket

September 23

2%
Yes 3.6¢No 99¢
2.6¢
$878
$98
0%
0%
N/A
3w 6d 13h
active
polymarket

September 3

2%
Yes 3.4¢No 99¢
2.4¢
$996
$98
0%
0%
N/A
1w 13h
active
polymarket

September 4

2%
Yes 3.4¢No 99¢
2.4¢
$852
$98
0%
0%
N/A
1w 1d 13h
active
polymarket

September 29

2%
Yes 3.3¢No 99¢
2.3¢
$771
$168
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

September 2

2%
Yes 3.7¢No 99.7¢
3.4¢
$977
$175
0%
62%
N/A
6d 13h 40m
active
polymarket

September 12

2%
Yes 2.9¢No 99.7¢
2.6¢
$932
$98
0%
0%
N/A
2w 2d 13h
active
polymarket

September 16

2%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.7¢
2.5¢
$1,006
$98
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d 13h
active
polymarket

September 15

2%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.8¢
2.6¢
$1,283
$98
0%
0%
N/A
2w 5d 13h
active
polymarket

September 17

2%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.8¢
2.6¢
$838
$98
0%
0%
N/A
3w 13h
active
polymarket

September 20

2%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.8¢
2.6¢
$937
$98
0%
0%
N/A
3w 3d 13h
active
polymarket

September 22

2%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.8¢
2.6¢
$1,130
$98
0%
0%
N/A
3w 5d 13h
active
polymarket

September 24

2%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.8¢
2.6¢
$999
$98
0%
0%
N/A
4w 13h
active
polymarket

September 25

2%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.8¢
2.6¢
$864
$98
0%
0%
N/A
4w 1d 13h
active
polymarket

September 18

1%
Yes 2.6¢No 99.7¢
2.3¢
$1,183
$101
0%
0%
N/A
3w 1d 13h
active
polymarket

September 11

1%
Yes 2.7¢No 99.8¢
2.5¢
$854
$98
0%
0%
N/A
2w 1d 13h
active
polymarket

September 19

1%
Yes 2.6¢No 99.8¢
2.4¢
$911
$98
0%
0%
N/A
3w 2d 13h
active
polymarket

September 27

1%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.7¢
2.2¢
$897
$98
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 1d
active
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.