TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$115,807,555
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,188,566,556
336,771
Markets across
33,711
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,629
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?
$
Description
This event group tracks two distinct but related future events involving Anthropic: the release timeline for the next Claude Opus model and the potential IPO of Anthropic. The first set of markets focuses on whether a specific Claude Opus model variant will be publicly released by various end-of-year dates in 2026. The second set focuses on whether Anthropic will conduct an initial public offering (IPO) by various end-of-quarter dates in 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets use identical resolution triggers: event occurrence on or before deadline, with specific accessibility requirements for software releases and listing requirements for IPOsPrimary resolution logic: Official Anthropic announcements, SEC filings, and stock exchange listings, verified by credible reporting consensusCore resolution logic:
- Claude Opus markets resolve 'Yes' only if Anthropic releases a model explicitly named 'Opus' (e.g., Opus 5.1, Opus 6) that is publicly accessible via open beta or general availability by the deadline
- IPO markets resolve 'Yes' only if Anthropic shares begin public trading on an exchange by the deadline; acquisition by a public company triggers immediate 'No'
- All markets require official verification from Anthropic or authoritative sources - placeholder text or closed beta access does not qualify
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Acquisition Before IPO: If Anthropic is acquired by a public company before the deadline, IPO markets resolve 'No' immediately regardless of original timeline
- Opus Variant Naming: Only models with 'Opus' in the official name qualify - Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, and Mythos variants do not count even if technically superior
- Public Access Definition: Open beta or rolling waitlist signups qualify; closed beta or private enterprise licensing does not meet public access requirements
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
