TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by...?
polymarket

Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by...?

Aug 14, 2026, 5:54 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$4,540
Volume 24h:
$170
84%
Liquidity:
$631
36%
Open interest:
$1,673N/A

September 30

 - Polymarket

September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by September 30, 2026?

21%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 21¢ buys you 476 shares | Odds: 21% Total Payout: $476 | Net Profit: $376 Multiplier: 4.76x | ROI: 376% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

September 30

Trade
21%
9%
Yes 21¢No 93¢
14¢
$69
$1,616
0.35%
70%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

August 31

2%
Yes 2.9¢No 99¢
1.9¢
$558
$2,924
6%
77%
N/A
4d 8h 45m
active
polymarket

September 15

N/A
N/A
92¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 5d 8h
active
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.