TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$132,305,954
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,208,428,537
337,256
Markets across
34,285
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,306
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Above $2.299
- Kalshi
Above $2.299 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Aug 31, 2026
Latest in Commodities
Time left: 03d:19h:49m
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.299 USD/MMBtu on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
$
Description
This event group determines whether the Natural Gas (NG) price will be up or down on August 24, 2026, compared to the previous trading day's close. The resolution depends on specific price thresholds and date comparisons across two prediction markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Fundamentally different resolution criteria: Polymarket uses a relative price comparison on August 24, 2026 vs prior day; Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds on August 31, 2026.Hero tip: Avoid cross-platform arbitrage. Focus on one platform's logic. Polymarket's resolution depends on daily price movement; Kalshi's resolves based on whether price exceeds any of 40 thresholds on a different date.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to "Up" if Close price for Active Month NG futures on August 24, 2026 is higher than prior trading day's Close. Resolves to "Down" if lower. 50-50 if equal, no trade, or non-trading day. Uses Pyth data.
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if close price of 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above $0.999/MMBtu (or any of 40 incrementally higher thresholds up to $4.899/MMBtu).
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on August 24, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on August 24, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the closing price of the natural gas 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2026. Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, switching to the next contract if the current one expires within five business days. Contracts are named by delivery month, not expiration date, and prices are rounded to three decimal places. The closing price represents the final value of the minute ending at 5:00 PM. If data is unavailable, the most recent published price is used. Each market has a specific price threshold; if the closing price exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes,' otherwise 'No.'
