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Longest GitHub critical incident in September?
polymarket

Longest GitHub critical incident in September?

Aug 19, 2026, 8:47 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$5,321
Volume 24h:
$1,254
557%
Liquidity:
$5,914
37%
Open interest:
$2,205N/A

6-12 hours

 - Polymarket

6-12 hours - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?

37%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 37¢ buys you 270 shares | Odds: 37% Total Payout: $270 | Net Profit: $170 Multiplier: 2.70x | ROI: 170% APY not meaningful 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

6-12 hours

Trade
37%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
$1,089
$1,532
15%
867%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

1-3 hours

26%
6%
Yes 26¢No 87¢
13¢
$908
$170
0%
157%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

3-6 hours

24%
Yes 25¢No 78¢
$1,272
$649
296%
1,522%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

12+ hours

16%
1%
Yes 17¢No 86¢
$1,158
$2,254
34%
5,520%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

<1 hour

7%
Yes No 95¢
$1,488
$716
0%
329%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.