TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$101,900,907

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,178,729,067

335,697

Markets across

33,528

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,579

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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ISM Services PMI - July 2026
polymarket
kalshi

ISM Services PMI - July 2026

Total volume:
$44,438
Volume 24h:
$10
100%
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$3,538
0%

At least 52

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 2, 2026

Time left: 05d:22h:13m

ISM Manufacturing PMI in Aug 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 84% 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 52

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 4¢
3¢
N/A
$119
0%
143%
$88
5d 22h 13m
active
polymarket

52.0–52.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,988
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
49.5%
Yes 49.5¢No 52¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

At least 54

Trade
85%
Yes 98¢No 50¢
48¢
N/A
$956
0%
26%
$552
5d 22h 13m
active
polymarket

54.0–54.9

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
92.5%
Yes 99¢No 25¢
Avg: 24.1¢Max: 48¢
kalshi

At least 53

Trade
66%
Yes 99¢No 34¢
33¢
N/A
$858
0%
102%
$592
5d 22h 13m
active
polymarket

53.0–53.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,719
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
33%
Yes 49.5¢No 67¢
Avg: 33¢Max: 33¢
kalshi

At least 55

Trade
65%
Yes 64¢No 79¢
43¢
N/A
$4,586
0%
59%
$1,913
5d 22h 13m
active
polymarket

55.0–55.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,013
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
32.5%
Yes 32¢No 89.5¢
Avg: 43¢Max: 43¢
kalshi

At least 56

Trade
3%
Yes 36¢No 97¢
33¢
N/A
$459
0%
173%
$377
5d 22h 13m
active
polymarket

56.0–56.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 18¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 33¢Max: 33¢
kalshi

At least 59

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$4
0%
0%
$2
5d 22h 13m
active
kalshi

At least 58

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$2
0%
0%
$1
5d 22h 13m
active
polymarket

58.0+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,772
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

At least 57

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$23
76%
1,054%
$12
5d 22h 13m
active
polymarket

57.0–57.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

<50.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,588
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

50.0–50.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

51.0–51.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$866
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group tracks the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026. The PMI measures the health of the services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Divergence in the reported PMI (Services vs. Manufacturing) and different months (July vs. August)Hero tip: Be cautious when trading these markets due to the divergence in the reported PMI (Services vs. Manufacturing) and different months (July vs. August). Ensure you understand which market you are trading and the specific resolution criteria for each.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on the ISM Services PMI for July 2026, with specific brackets for different PMI ranges. The resolution source is the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for July 2026, scheduled for August 5, 2026.
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve based on the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026, with thresholds starting from 52 upwards. The resolution source is the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for August 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 5, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

Multiple markets resolve based on the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI value for August 2026, published by ISM with one decimal precision. Each market specifies a different threshold between 52 and 59; if the reported value meets or exceeds the threshold designated for a particular market, that market resolves to Yes. All markets share the same underlying data source and measurement methodology, with resolution contingent solely on whether the published figure reaches the respective minimum value set for each individual contract.