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$1,208,428,537
337,256
Markets across
34,285
events
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3,306
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Kalshi:
58%
Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $25/MTok in 2026?
$
Description
This event tracks whether OpenAI's GPT 5.5 model output token pricing will decline to various price thresholds during 2026. As AI models become more efficient and competition increases, API pricing typically decreases over time, making this a measure of how aggressively pricing may drop for this specific model variant.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the standard listed Output Token Price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 displayed on the API pricing section of https://openai.com/api/pricing/ during 2026, measured in USD per million tokens (MTok). Each price threshold ($25, $20, $15, and $10 per MTok) represents a separate resolution condition—a lower threshold resolves Yes only if the price meets or falls below that specific level. The official price used must be explicitly displayed on OpenAI's API pricing page; if the product is renamed or succeeded by a successor model, the closest equivalent product will be used for resolution. Only standard listed API pricing applies; promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing is excluded. If OpenAI's pricing page is unavailable at the expiration date, the last available published price will be used. If no pricing data for GPT 5.5 is available by the expiration date, the last available price from 2026 will be used; if no prior value exists, all outcomes resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets aggregate real-time beliefs from traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately, often diverging from published analyst reports. While traditional research firms may issue quarterly or annual pricing outlooks based on historical trends and company guidance, this market reflects live consensus from participants actively trading on outcomes. Comparing the current odds here to major analyst consensus on AI infrastructure costs can reveal whether the market is pricing in faster adoption, competitive pressure, or technological efficiency gains that analysts have not yet fully incorporated.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced as a binary or range contract where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific price thresholds for GPT 5.5 output tokens in 2026. The current odds reflect the collective assessment of whether the lowest price will fall within or below defined brackets. Share prices move between 0 and 100 cents based on order flow, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating market confidence and liquidity at each price level.
This market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. The outcome is determined by the lowest price OpenAI's GPT 5.5 output tokens reach during the 2026 calendar year, as verified against official OpenAI pricing announcements or published rate cards. Traders holding positions aligned with the final verified price level will receive payouts, while those on the wrong side of the threshold will lose their stake.
Major catalysts include OpenAI's pricing announcements, competitive launches from Anthropic or Google, shifts in compute costs, and changes in enterprise demand for API access. Regulatory actions affecting AI deployment, breakthroughs in model efficiency, or macroeconomic pressures on cloud spending could all influence token pricing strategy. Quarterly earnings calls, developer conference keynotes, and industry reports on AI infrastructure spending will likely trigger repricing as traders update their forecasts for year-end token costs.
