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337,256
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Kalshi:
58%
64.99 or below
- Kalshi
64.99 or below - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Commodities
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?
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Intro
This market tracks whether West Texas Intermediate crude oil will touch a minimum price below $50 per barrel at any point during 2026, based on daily front-month settle prices. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that WTI will reach below $50 by December 31, 2026—currently stands at 93.0%. Resolution will be determined by ICE's official WTI front-month settlement data. Watch for major geopolitical developments or supply disruptions that could support prices above $50 through the end of 2026, as the resolution window closes on December 31, 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the minimum WTI front-month settle price reported by ICE between market issuance and December 31, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold: the market resolves to Yes if the minimum price falls below that threshold at any point during the period. The thresholds range progressively from $85 down to $50, allowing traders to bet on increasingly severe price declines. Only the lowest price achieved matters; prices above the threshold do not affect resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction about WTI floor levels, often diverging from traditional analyst consensus. While sell-side energy forecasts tend to rely on fundamental models and geopolitical scenarios, markets price in live sentiment and tail-risk hedging. The 47.0% probability embedded in this market suggests traders see meaningful odds of WTI touching lower thresholds by year-end. Comparing market-implied odds to Bloomberg consensus or OPEC production guidance can reveal where professional traders disagree with conventional wisdom.
On Kalshi, this event is priced as a binary contract on whether WTI's minimum front-month settlement reaches specific price floors by Jan 1, 2027. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently trades at 47.0% probability, reflecting market belief in the likelihood of that threshold being breached. Prices move with crude supply shocks, dollar strength, demand signals, and inventory reports. Traders buy YES to hedge downside exposure or sell YES to bet on price support holding above key technical levels.
Major catalysts include OPEC production decisions, US inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions, and macroeconomic recession signals. Dollar strength typically pressures oil lower, while equity market rallies can lift crude demand expectations. Seasonal winter heating demand and refinery maintenance cycles influence near-term floors. Federal Reserve policy and inflation data affect real rates and commodity carry trades. Unexpected supply outages or demand shocks from China or Europe could rapidly shift market pricing toward lower WTI levels before year-end.
