TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
polymarket

Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Jul 23, 2026, 6:45 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$27,815
Volume 24h:
$2,648
34%
Liquidity:
$3,951
2%
Open interest:
$3,907N/A

45%+

 - Polymarket

45%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?

92%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 92% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 20% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

45%+

Trade
92%
9%
Yes 94¢No 11¢
5¢
$1,112
$6,564
16%
82%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

55%+

Trade
46%
4%
Yes 46¢No 75¢
21¢
$511
$3,973
33%
1,034%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

50%+

Trade
46%
4%
Yes 47¢No 56¢
3¢
$982
$10,653
7%
18%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

60%+

Trade
18%
2%
Yes 19¢No 84¢
3¢
$722
$6,171
0.98%
88%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

65%+

Trade
6%
Yes 7.2¢No 95.9¢
3.1¢
$624
$454
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".