TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$149,897,520
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,214,596,905
340,805
Markets across
34,373
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,679
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Time left: 17d:06h:34m
Will Urban Outfitters Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 96 ?
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Description
This event group tracks GPU rental prices for the RTX 5090 at the end of September 2026, specifically focusing on the Ornn RTX 5090 Index price on September 30, 2026. The group includes multiple markets on Polymarket with varying price brackets and a separate set of markets on Kalshi related to Urban Outfitters' credit card spend.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Fundamental divergence in underlying data sources and resolution criteriaHero tip: Traders should be cautious due to the fundamental difference in underlying data sources and resolution criteria between Polymarket (GPU rental prices) and Kalshi (credit card spend). These markets resolve based on entirely different datasets and should be treated as separate risk profiles.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the Ornn RTX 5090 Index price on September 30, 2026, using data from Ornnai.com. Markets have specific price brackets and resolve to the higher bracket if data falls exactly between two brackets. "The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the RTX 5090 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com."
- Kalshi: Resolves based on Carbon Arc Urban Outfitters Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026, with multiple threshold-based markets that resolve to Yes if the spend exceeds specified values. "If the Carbon Arc Urban Outfitters Monthly Credit Card Spend (August 2026) for August 2026 is above [X], then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn RTX 5090 Index price for September 30, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the RTX 5090 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Kalshi
All markets in this event resolve based on the Carbon Arc Urban Outfitters Monthly Credit Card Spend index for August 2026. The index measures year-over-year changes in U.S. store visits, with 100 representing equal spending to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth, while values below 100 indicate decline. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., above 96, above 98, etc.), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the reported index value exceeds its respective threshold. The determination is based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement will not affect the outcome. The index is calculated using mobile location data from over 200 million devices, matched to the same calendar days as the prior year and normalized for seasonality, weather, and holidays. The panel updates daily as new data becomes available.
