TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$91,248,924
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,163,520,955
334,440
Markets across
33,346
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,559
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Time left: 04d:11h:02m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026?
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Description
This event group tracks GPU rental price indices and token pricing thresholds for specific dates in 2026. The Polymarket questions focus on the Ornn B200 Index price brackets as of August 31, 2026, while the Kalshi markets monitor Ornn - DeepSeek average price per million tokens against incremental thresholds as of August 14, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: These markets resolve on completely different assets (B200 Index vs DeepSeek token price) and dates (August 31, 2026 vs August 14, 2026).Hero tip: Treat these as separate bets with no correlation. The Polymarket markets resolve on GPU rental prices at month-end 2026, while Kalshi markets resolve on AI token pricing two weeks earlier.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Ornn B200 Index price brackets for August 31, 2026 using Ornnai.com data with a 7-day finalization buffer. 'If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.'
- Kalshi: Resolves if Ornn - DeepSeek average price per million tokens is above specified thresholds ($0.06 to $0.16/mTok) on August 14, 2026 at 10AM ET. Each market has its own threshold.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for August 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Ornn-reported average price of DeepSeek tokens per million tokens (mTok) at 10AM ET on August 14, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., $0.06, $0.07, etc.), and resolves to 'Yes' if the settled price meets or exceeds that threshold. The resolving price uses Ornn’s most recent settled print as of the expiration time, which may reflect the prior calendar day’s closing due to Ornn’s approximately 12-hour settlement lag after daily closes at 00:00 UTC. Post-expiration adjustments to the underlying data are disregarded. All valuations use the USD iteration of the index, rounded to two decimal places. Thresholds apply independently, allowing multiple markets to resolve as 'Yes' or 'No' depending on where the actual price falls relative to each specified level.
