TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$142,891,824
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,211,057,904
339,560
Markets across
34,155
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,672
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026?
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Description
This event group tracks two distinct topics: Federal Reserve interest rate changes following the October 2026 meeting and the Ornn A100 GPU index price levels on September 30, 2026. The first set of markets focuses on monetary policy decisions, while the second set addresses cryptocurrency compute market metrics.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets within each domain (Fed rates and Ornn index) share consistent resolution sources, timing, and rounding rules despite appearing in different platformsPrimary resolution logic: Federal Reserve official website for Fed rates; Ornnai.com dashboard for GPU index valuesCore resolution logic:
- Fed rate changes are measured against the rate level prior to the October 2026 FOMC meeting
- Rate changes are rounded to nearest 25 basis points for bracket assignment
- Ornn index values use the finalized September 30, 2026 data point from Ornnai's public dashboard
- Index brackets are evaluated using inclusive lower bounds with exclusive upper bounds
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Exact bracket boundaries: Values exactly matching bracket upper limits resolve to the next higher bracket
- Late data: Ornn index markets resolve using latest available data if September 30 value isn't finalized within 7 days
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn A100 Index price for September 30, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the A100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether Valmyndigheten, Sweden's official Election Authority, certifies that the respective party has won at least one seat in the Riksdag through its final, official allocation. Only this authoritative source determines resolution, with preliminary counts or third-party republishing without clear original attribution excluded as qualifying evidence. Regional or municipal election results are irrelevant, as are victories by unlisted parties. Each party's market resolves independently according to its own certified seat outcome.
Predict
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.