TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$142,891,824

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,211,057,904

339,560

Markets across

34,155

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,672

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Total volume:
$39,501
Volume 24h:
$5,665
674%
Liquidity:
$6,187
27%
Open interest:
$7,333
0%

Above $4.7 trillion

 - Kalshi

Above $4.7 trillion - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $4.7 trillion

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 5¢
4¢
N/A
$2,154
0%
0%
$617
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above $4.9 trillion

Trade
97%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$2,385
0%
0%
$2,042
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above $5.1 trillion

Trade
88%
Yes 89¢No 21¢
10¢
N/A
$3,994
0%
0%
$3,705
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above $5.3 trillion

Trade
66%
Yes 74¢No 34¢
8¢
N/A
$18
0%
0%
$14
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

1.0-1.2%

Trade
53%
16%
Yes 54¢No 48¢
2¢
$1,809
$16,751
19%
25%
N/A
2mo 3d
active
kalshi

Above $5.5 trillion

Trade
35%
Yes 44¢No 66¢
10¢
N/A
$16
0%
0%
$14
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

0.7-0.9%

Trade
28%
9%
Yes 28¢No 90¢
18¢
$836
$5,243
73%
80%
N/A
2mo 3d
active
kalshi

Above $5.7 trillion

Trade
19%
Yes 27¢No 82¢
9¢
N/A
$81
0%
0%
$79
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

1.3%+

Trade
18%
4%
Yes 22¢No 87¢
9¢
$798
$3,655
8%
11%
N/A
2mo 3d
active
kalshi

Above $5.9 trillion

Trade
7%
Yes 12¢No 97¢
9¢
N/A
$30
0%
0%
$30
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

0.4-0.6%

Trade
6%
14%
Yes 8.9¢No 97.8¢
6.7¢
$628
$650
19%
23%
N/A
2mo 3d
active
polymarket

≤0.0%

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4.1¢No 98.8¢
2.9¢
$1,240
$1,270
15%
17%
N/A
2mo 3d
active
kalshi

Above $6.5 trillion

Trade
2%
Yes 7¢No 99¢
6¢
N/A
$1,405
0%
0%
$605
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above $6.1 trillion

Trade
2%
Yes 11¢No 98¢
9¢
N/A
$274
0%
0%
$137
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above $6.3 trillion

Trade
2%
Yes 8¢No 100¢
8¢
N/A
$180
0%
0%
$90
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

0.1-0.3%

Trade
0%
4%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$875
$1,394
24%
26%
N/A
2mo 3d
active
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group focuses on predicting Germany's economic performance in Q3 2026 through two distinct metrics: nominal GDP thresholds for the entire year 2026 (Kalshi) and quarterly GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter a year earlier (Polymarket).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets track fundamentally different economic metrics: Kalshi uses annual nominal GDP thresholds while Polymarket uses quarterly year-over-year growth ratesHero tip: Treat these as separate bets measuring different economic indicators. Kalshi reflects Germany's economic size while Polymarket reflects short-term growth momentum. Consider both perspectives when hedging positions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on quarterly GDP growth rate (% change) vs same quarter a year earlier, reported in Destatis Q3 2026 press release. Markets cover specific ranges: <=0.0%, 0.1-0.3%, 0.4-0.6%, etc.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on total nominal GDP for entire year 2026 against cascading thresholds from $4.7T to $6.5T. Any threshold being met results in a 'Yes' outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on Germany's nominal GDP for the calendar year 2026, determined using the first official release of Q4 2026 data. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific GDP threshold, with Yes resolving if the reported figure exceeds that threshold.