TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Fed rate hike by...?
polymarket
kalshi

Fed rate hike by...?

Total volume:
$2,403,818
Volume 24h:
$19,333
85%
Liquidity:
$157,453
25%
Open interest:
$2
0%

October Meeting

 - Polymarket

October Meeting - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 29, 2026

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

45%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 45¢ buys you 222 shares | Odds: 45% Total Payout: $222 | Net Profit: $122 Multiplier: 2.22x | ROI: 122% High Projected APY: 1,548% 103 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October Meeting

Trade
45%
2%
Yes 45¢No 56¢
1¢
$77,217
$502,632
0.86%
3%
N/A
3mo 1w 6d
active
polymarket

September Meeting

Trade
33%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
$80,236
$941,184
1%
8%
N/A
3mo 1w 6d
active
polymarket

July Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$782,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 6d
No
polymarket

April Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 6d
No
polymarket

June Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,785
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 6d
No
kalshi

Above 3.66%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks whether the Federal Reserve will increase the target federal funds rate at or before specific FOMC meetings in 2026, with one market also referencing the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for a specific date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The Polymarket markets are based on target federal funds rate hikes at specific FOMC meetings, while the Kalshi market is based on the SOFR rate exceeding a specific threshold on a specific date.Hero tip: Traders should monitor both the target federal funds rate announcements and the SOFR fixing on August 18, 2026, as these markets resolve differently. Pay attention to any emergency rate hikes which could affect Polymarket outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed FOMC meeting. Emergency rate hikes qualify.
  • Kalshi: Yes if the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for August 18, 2026 is above 3.66%.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for August 18, 2026 is above 3.66%, then the market resolves to Yes.