TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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ECB rate cut in 2026?
🌟New
polymarket
kalshi

ECB rate cut in 2026?

Total volume:
$32,831
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$3,731
0%
Open interest:
$1,002
0%

Maintain current rate

 - Kalshi

Maintain current rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the October ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

86%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 86¢ buys you 116 shares | Odds: 86% Total Payout: $116 | Net Profit: $16 Multiplier: 1.16x | ROI: 16% | APY: 139% 62 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintain current rate

Trade
86%
Yes 86¢No 19¢
5¢
N/A
$1,000
0%
N/A
$1,000
2mo 2d
active
polymarket

ECB rate cut in 2026?

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 94¢
2¢
$3,731
$31,829
0%
0.21%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$2
0%
N/A
$2
2mo 2d
active
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2d
active
kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2d
active
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2d
active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Contracts resolve based on the official policy rate decision announced by the European Central Bank at its October ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for No change resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution. Specific basis point ranges are inclusive. Five distinct outcomes cover all possible rate actions: cutting more than 25 basis points, cutting between 1 and 25 basis points, maintaining the current rate, hiking between 1 and 25 basis points, or hiking more than 25 basis points.