TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 16, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Two platforms offer markets on this outcome, but they use fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies to determine the result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure different aspects of Dogecoin price movement using different data sources and time windows. Kalshi resolves based on a single 60-second snapshot of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI at 5 PM EDT; Polymarket resolves based on a price comparison (4 PM to 8 PM ET) using Chainlink DOGE/USD data.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets. Kalshi's 24 threshold outcomes are granular price-level bets; Polymarket's binary Up/Down is directional. The two sources (CF Benchmarks vs. Chainlink) may diverge, especially during volatile periods. If you are hedging across platforms, account for source risk and timing mismatch (Kalshi snapshot at 5 PM vs. Polymarket's 4-hour window ending at 8 PM).Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Snapshot-based oracle using CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI. Resolves at 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026 based on whether a 60-second average exceeds one of 24 discrete price thresholds (0.0049999 to 0.1749999). Each threshold is a separate Yes/No outcome. Key quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Price-comparison oracle using Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream. Resolves based on whether the price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4:00 PM ET on June 16, 2026. Binary outcome: Up or Down. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Kalshi
Price resolution uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI), with the official value calculated as the simple average of sixty individual RTI prices collected during the final sixty seconds before 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026. Outcomes are structured in five-cent increments beginning at $0.005 and extending to $0.175 and above. Each threshold requires the average price to exceed the specified level (e.g., $0.0049999 for the $0.005 outcome, $0.0099999 for the $0.01 outcome, etc.). This methodology ensures accurate price discovery by aggregating real-time data rather than relying on single-point quotes from alternative sources.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds function as a probability estimate derived from real money at stake, distinct from spot price alone. Traders betting on directional movement embed their expectations about volatility, news catalysts, and technical levels into the odds displayed on this market. While spot price reflects the current exchange rate, the odds here represent the crowd's belief about whether DOGE will rise or fall within the defined timeframe. This forward-looking signal often diverges from static price data, making prediction markets a complementary lens for understanding sentiment and expected price action.
Kalshi and Polymarket operate under different regulatory frameworks, user demographics, and market-making mechanisms. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's order flow, liquidity depth, and fee structure influence how traders price the same outcome. Additionally, timing differences in when positions are entered or exited, combined with varying levels of arbitrage activity, can create temporary spreads. These differences are normal and often present opportunities for sophisticated traders to identify mispricings across venues.
This market resolves around , once the four-hour observation window closes and the outcome is verifiable from credible public sources. The result hinges on whether Dogecoin's price at the end of the window is higher or lower than at the start, measured against established exchange data. Traders holding positions on the winning side receive payouts proportional to their stake and the odds at entry. Resolution is typically confirmed within hours of the window's close as platforms reconcile final pricing data.
Macroeconomic announcements, Bitcoin volatility, and regulatory news are primary catalysts that shift odds on this market. Social media momentum around Dogecoin, exchange listings or delistings, and statements from prominent figures can trigger rapid repricing. Technical chart patterns and support or resistance levels also influence trader positioning. Additionally, broader crypto market sentiment—driven by Fed policy, institutional adoption news, or sector-wide corrections—often cascades into DOGE price action, making these external signals key drivers of market movement during the trading window.
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