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CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
kalshi

CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?

Dec 15, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Sep 11, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$27,262
Volume 24h:
$3,024
885%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$19,611
15%

Exactly 3.4%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 14d:23h:49m

CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?

49%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 50¢ buys you 200 shares | Odds: 49% Total Payout: $200 | Net Profit: $100 Multiplier: 2.00x | ROI: 100% APY not meaningful 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.4%

Trade
49%
Yes 50¢No 70¢
20¢
N/A
$6,762
0%
66%
$3,426
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.3%

Trade
34%
4%
Yes 35¢No 72¢
7¢
N/A
$8,080
11%
19%
$6,710
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.5%

Trade
15%
Yes 20¢No 87¢
7¢
N/A
$4,199
2%
5%
$2,940
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.2%

Trade
15%
8%
Yes 16¢No 92¢
8¢
N/A
$1,688
5%
12%
$1,301
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 2.9%

Trade
11%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$231
0%
0%
$11
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 2.6%

Trade
10%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$55
0%
0%
$55
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.1%

Trade
5%
Yes 7¢No 100¢
7¢
N/A
$751
0%
0%
$426
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.0%

Trade
5%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$531
0%
2%
$211
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 2.2%

Trade
5%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2
0%
0%
$2
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 2.8%

Trade
5%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 2.3%

Trade
5%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.5%

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$189
0%
0%
$189
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.6%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$3,480
139%
179%
$3,337
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.7%

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$436
0%
0%
$277
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$282
0%
0%
$228
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$216
0%
0%
$192
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.3%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$104
0%
0%
$59
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.1%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$75
0%
0%
$71
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$65
0%
0%
$65
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.2%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$54
0%
0%
$50
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.4%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$54
0%
0%
$54
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 2.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$3
0%
0%
$3
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 2.7%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 2.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 23h
active
kalshi

Exactly 2.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 23h
active
Total markets: 25 of 26

Intro

This market tracks whether the U.S. Consumer Price Index year-over-year inflation rate will reach exactly 3.5% in August 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 49.5%, with the alternative outcome also at 49.5%, reflecting an evenly split market. Resolution will be determined by the official CPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Watch for the August 2026 CPI report, expected around mid-September 2026, which will definitively settle whether inflation hits that precise 3.5% threshold.

Kalshi

This event establishes a series of specific CPI year-over-year targets for August 2026, ranging from 2.0% to 3.5% in 0.1% increments. Each outcome corresponds to an exact inflation rate: if the official CPI year-over-year figure equals a given percentage, that outcome resolves to Yes. Only one outcome can resolve to Yes unless the actual CPI matches multiple listed values, which is not possible given the 0.1% precision of the outcomes. This structure allows traders to bet on the precise inflation level rather than directional movements. The resolution uses the officially published CPI year-over-year figure for August 2026. Outcomes represent a comprehensive range of moderate inflation scenarios, enabling granular forecasting of consumer price inflation during that month.

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026 event on Kalshi. You can monitor the current implied probability of outcomes, historical price movements, and live order flow. The dashboard displays total group volume of $27,262 and 24-hour volume of $3,024, giving you a complete view of market depth and recent trader interest. This single-venue snapshot helps you assess consensus sentiment and liquidity before placing your own prediction.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money traders' expectations for August 2026 inflation, often incorporating faster-moving data than traditional analyst surveys. While economists publish periodic CPI forecasts based on models and historical trends, prediction markets aggregate live information and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. Comparing the current market-implied probability to consensus economist views can reveal whether traders are pricing in more or less inflation risk than the mainstream forecast. This divergence often signals where market participants see asymmetric opportunity.

CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026 is priced on Kalshi as a binary or multi-outcome contract reflecting the probability of specific inflation ranges or thresholds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price directly represents the implied probability of that outcome occurring. The current top outcome shows 49.0% implied probability. As new economic data, Fed communications, or market sentiment emerge, prices adjust in real time, allowing traders to enter or exit positions dynamically through the resolution date.

The CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026 market resolves on Sep 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official Consumer Price Index data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for August 2026. The year-over-year figure compares August 2026 prices to August 2025 prices, capturing the 12-month inflation rate. Once the BLS publishes the official CPI report, the outcome is settled according to the specific outcome thresholds defined in the contract terms.

Several catalysts could shift CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026 odds significantly. Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest-rate changes influence inflation expectations and borrowing costs. Energy and commodity prices, particularly oil, directly affect consumer inflation. Labor market strength and wage growth feed into price pressures. Supply-chain disruptions or geopolitical events can spike input costs. Monthly CPI releases leading up to August 2026 will provide real data points that traders incorporate into their forecasts. Fiscal policy announcements and inflation-linked economic reports will also move market sentiment as the resolution date approaches.