TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Core PCE MoM - July 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Core PCE MoM - July 2026

Total volume:
$105,543
Volume 24h:
$23,975
227%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$39,133
75%

Above 0.1%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 26, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,334
N/A
N/A
$19,020
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

0.2%

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$8,564
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$7
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,120
N/A
N/A
$13,930
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

0.3%

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,235
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 0.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,925
N/A
N/A
$5,596
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

0.4%+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,299
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,076
N/A
N/A
$580
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

0.1%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,266
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,541
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

≤-0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,276
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

-0.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$899
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event group tracks the month-over-month percent change in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) for July 2026. The Core PCE excludes food and energy and is a key inflation metric reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Markets across different platforms are structured around various thresholds of this percentage change.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold and structure divergence between Kalshi's binary market and Polymarket's granular threshold marketsHero tip: Traders should monitor the official BEA release for the exact Core PCE MoM figure and cross-reference it against both platforms' resolution rules. Be aware that a single data point could lead to different resolutions across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary market that resolves to Yes if Core PCE MoM is above 0.0% (any positive value), per rules: "If the month-over-month percent change [...] is above 0.0% [...] then the market resolves to Yes."
  • Polymarket: Multiple markets each targeting specific thresholds (-0.2%, -0.1%, 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4% or more). Each market resolves based on whether the actual figure matches its specific threshold.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy for July 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each market corresponds to a threshold: 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, or 0.4%. A market resolves to Yes if the measured month-over-month percent change exceeds its designated threshold. Markets close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected data release date and expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release or one week after the expected release date.