TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$149,897,520

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,214,596,905

340,805

Markets across

34,373

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,679

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Core CPI YoY - August 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Core CPI YoY - August 2026

Total volume:
$40,234
Volume 24h:
$2,376
874%
Liquidity:
$5,780
45%
Open interest:
$21,285
0%

Above 2.1%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 14d:16h:56m

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in August 2026?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.1%

Trade
93%
Yes 100¢No 5¢
5¢
N/A
$10,382
0%
0%
$10,345
2w 16h
active
kalshi

Above 2.2%

Trade
92%
Yes 100¢No 10¢
10¢
N/A
$2,298
0%
0.35%
$209
2w 16h
active
kalshi

Above 2.3%

Trade
62%
Yes 72¢No 38¢
10¢
N/A
$749
0%
45%
$526
2w 16h
active
kalshi

Above 2.4%

Trade
46%
Yes 39¢No 96¢
35¢
N/A
$1,973
0%
29%
$1,435
2w 16h
active
polymarket

2.4%

Trade
44%
2%
Yes 45¢No 57¢
2¢
$2,178
$3,802
13%
40%
N/A
2w 6h
active
polymarket

2.3%

Trade
36%
2%
Yes 39¢No 68¢
7¢
$525
$1,601
288%
329%
N/A
2w 6h
active
kalshi

Above 3.4%

Trade
29%
Yes 29¢No 100¢
29¢
N/A
$558
0%
253%
$456
2w 16h
active
kalshi

Above 3.1%

Trade
23%
Yes 30¢No 100¢
30¢
N/A
$151
0%
0%
$85
2w 16h
active
polymarket

2.5%

Trade
21%
3%
Yes 21¢No 96¢
17¢
$466
$1,150
182%
398%
N/A
2w 6h
active
kalshi

Above 3.3%

Trade
15%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$144
0%
0%
$16
2w 16h
active
kalshi

Above 2.5%

Trade
11%
Yes 18¢No 100¢
18¢
N/A
$413
0%
0%
$336
2w 16h
active
kalshi

Above 3.2%

Trade
11%
Yes 24¢No 100¢
24¢
N/A
$150
0%
0%
$53
2w 16h
active
polymarket

2.7%

Trade
6%
Yes 10.8¢No 98¢
8.8¢
$234
$792
0%
5%
N/A
2w 6h
active
kalshi

Above 3.5%

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$126
0%
0%
$53
2w 16h
active
kalshi

Above 2.7%

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$8,427
0%
0%
$5,854
2w 16h
active
kalshi

Above 2.6%

Trade
3%
Yes 27¢No 100¢
27¢
N/A
$277
0%
0%
$253
2w 16h
active
polymarket

2.6%

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 98.5¢
2.5¢
$517
$918
0%
5%
N/A
2w 6h
active
polymarket

2.8%

Trade
3%
Yes 4.2¢No 99.2¢
3.4¢
$316
$922
0%
5%
N/A
2w 6h
active
polymarket

2.2%

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3¢No 98.9¢
1.9¢
$341
$414
0%
11%
N/A
2w 6h
active
kalshi

Above 2.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 20¢No 100¢
20¢
N/A
$3,104
0%
0%
$1,044
2w 16h
active
polymarket

≥2.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.5¢
0.4¢
$360
$461
0%
9%
N/A
2w 6h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 10.5¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 10.2¢Max: 20¢
kalshi

Above 2.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 17¢No 100¢
17¢
N/A
$373
0%
0%
$310
2w 16h
active
polymarket

2.1%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.7¢
1.4¢
$447
$353
0%
29%
N/A
2w 6h
active
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$320
0%
0%
$309
2w 16h
active
polymarket

≤2.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.8¢
0.7¢
$397
$375
0%
12%
N/A
2w 6h
active
Total markets: 25

Description

This event group tracks the year-over-year change in the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026, which measures inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms resolve based on the same official BLS Core CPI-U figure for August 2026, reported to one decimal place.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index report for August 2026

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolve using the official BLS Core CPI-U figure for the 12-month period ending August 2026
  • Use the percentage change reported to one decimal place as the final settlement value
  • If the BLS fails to release on the scheduled date, use the most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • BLS Release Delay: If the BLS does not release the August 2026 CPI report on September 11, 2026, the market will resolve using the figures from the most recent previous month with available data.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon release of the BLS Consumer Price Index report for August 2026, scheduled for September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the one-decimal place value of the Core Consumer Price Index year-over-year change for the twelve months ending August 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each threshold from 2.1% through 3.5% (in 0.1% increments) constitutes a separate resolution criterion, with affirmative resolution occurring if the reported core CPI increase exceeds the specified threshold. In the event of delays caused by federal government shutdown impacting data reliability from the source agency, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of either the actual data release or six months following the end of the government shutdown.