TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$115,807,555

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,188,566,556

336,771

Markets across

33,711

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,629

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Core CPI MoM - August 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Core CPI MoM - August 2026

Total volume:
$7,743
Volume 24h:
$46
109%
Liquidity:
$1,936
10%
Open interest:
$1,544
0%

Exactly 0.4%

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 14d:20h:20m

CPI core month-over-month in Aug 2026?

80%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 10¢ buys you 1,000 shares | Odds: 80% Total Payout: $1,000 | Net Profit: $900 Multiplier: 10.00x | ROI: 900% APY not meaningful 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 0.4%

Trade
80%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$31
0%
0%
$22
2w 20h
active
polymarket

0.4%

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
$206
$194
0%
0%
N/A
2w 10h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
41.5%
Yes 7¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 6.5¢Max: 10¢
polymarket

≤0.0%

Trade
66%
51%
Yes 66¢No 96¢
62¢
$384
$238
0%
0%
N/A
2w 10h
active
polymarket

0.2%

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 50¢No 52¢
2¢
$378
$3,711
0.99%
9%
N/A
2w 10h
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.2%

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 47¢No 64¢
11¢
N/A
$761
0.13%
18%
$645
2w 20h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
49%
Yes 48.5¢No 58¢
Avg: 6.5¢Max: 11¢
kalshi

Exactly 0.3%

Trade
27%
Yes 28¢No 89¢
17¢
N/A
$302
0%
372%
$276
2w 20h
active
polymarket

0.3%

Trade
25%
1%
Yes 28¢No 79¢
7¢
$369
$552
0%
12%
N/A
2w 10h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
26%
Yes 28¢No 84¢
Avg: 12¢Max: 17¢
kalshi

Exactly 0.1%

Trade
26%
Yes 27¢No 93¢
20¢
N/A
$376
0%
0.98%
$243
2w 20h
active
polymarket

0.1%

Trade
19%
2%
Yes 23¢No 85¢
8¢
$313
$696
1%
37%
N/A
2w 10h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
22.5%
Yes 25¢No 89¢
Avg: 14¢Max: 20¢
kalshi

Exactly -0.1%

Trade
8%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$39
0%
0%
$39
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.0%

Trade
7%
Yes 14¢No 100¢
14¢
N/A
$180
0%
0%
$65
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Exactly -0.2%

Trade
7%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$48
0%
0%
$48
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.5%

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$4
0%
0%
$3
2w 20h
active
polymarket

0.5%

Trade
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99¢
2.9¢
$197
$204
0%
0%
N/A
2w 10h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3%
Yes 4¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 3.5¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

0.6%+

Trade
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99¢
2.9¢
$88
$204
0%
0%
N/A
2w 10h
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.7%

Trade
1%
Yes 9¢No 100¢
9¢
N/A
$50
0%
0%
$50
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 9¢No 100¢
9¢
N/A
$50
0%
0%
$50
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 9¢No 100¢
9¢
N/A
$50
0%
0%
$50
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Exactly 1.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$50
0%
0%
$50
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.6%

Trade
1%
Yes 10¢No 99¢
9¢
N/A
$3
0%
0%
$3
2w 20h
active
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group tracks the month-over-month change in the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026. Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices to provide a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same official source (BLS) and share identical data precision (one decimal place) for August 2026 Core CPI MoM.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index report for August 2026

Core resolution logic:

  • The official BLS report will determine the exact Core CPI MoM percentage change for August 2026
  • All markets resolve based on this single source with one decimal place precision
  • Kalshi markets resolve to Yes only for exact percentage matches listed in their contract terms
  • Polymarket markets resolve based on threshold comparisons (e.g., "0.6 or more") or exact matches as per their specific question wording

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • BLS Report Delay: If the BLS fails to release the August report on September 11, 2026, markets will resolve using the most recent previous month's data according to Polymarket rules, while Kalshi markets remain open until the next scheduled release
  • Data Revision: All markets resolve based on the initial August 2026 BLS release. Subsequent revisions or corrections do not affect resolution.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon release of the BLS Consumer Price Index report for August 2026, scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

This event resolves based on the official month-over-month percentage change in Core CPI for August 2026. Resolution occurs when the reported figure matches one of the specified thresholds: -0.2%, -0.1%, 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, or 0.5%. Each threshold represents a distinct outcome, allowing traders to express views on the precise magnitude and direction of core inflation movement during the month.