TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$149,897,520

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,214,596,905

340,805

Markets across

34,373

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,679

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

Total volume:
$49,277
Volume 24h:
$254
69%
Liquidity:
$16,086
2%
Open interest:
$17,084
1%

Above 4.8%

 - Kalshi

Above 4.8% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 20, 2026

Time left: 26d:04h:31m

China unemployment rate in August 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 26 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4.8%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$4,332
0%
0%
$4,332
3w 5d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 4.9%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 2¢
2¢
N/A
$3,495
0%
8%
$2,535
3w 5d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 4.7%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$2,343
0%
0%
$2,343
3w 5d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 5.0%

Trade
97%
Yes 91¢No 10¢
1¢
N/A
$1,947
0%
1%
$912
3w 5d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 5.1%

Trade
64%
Yes 82¢No 35¢
17¢
N/A
$708
0%
79%
$382
3w 5d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 5.2%

Trade
43%
Yes 63¢No 57¢
20¢
N/A
$306
8%
214%
$104
3w 5d 4h
active
polymarket

4.3-4.6%

Trade
42%
Yes 43¢No 59¢
2¢
$2,282
$11,530
0.02%
15%
N/A
1mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

4.6-4.9%

Trade
36%
Yes 37¢No 65¢
2¢
$1,701
$8,398
0.06%
4%
N/A
1mo 3w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 5.3%

Trade
32%
Yes 37¢No 82¢
19¢
N/A
$472
89%
511%
$269
3w 5d 4h
active
polymarket

4.0-4.3%

Trade
22%
1%
Yes 23.3¢No 79¢
2.3¢
$1,697
$2,037
0%
9%
N/A
1mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

4.9-5.2%

Trade
4%
Yes 4.9¢No 97.2¢
2.1¢
$1,590
$2,960
0.07%
4%
N/A
1mo 3w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 5.4%

Trade
3%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$64
0%
0%
$64
3w 5d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 5.6%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,169
0%
0%
$4,169
3w 5d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 5.7%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,975
0%
39,400%
$1,975
3w 5d 4h
active
polymarket

5.5%+

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$1,896
$1,117
0%
7%
N/A
1mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

<3.4%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$1,657
$1,049
0%
10%
N/A
1mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

5.2-5.5%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$1,701
$971
0%
8%
N/A
1mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

3.7-4.0%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,686
$709
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

3.4-3.7%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,877
$694
0%
4%
N/A
1mo 3w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 5.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 4h
active
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group tracks China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q3 2026, with multiple markets on Polymarket covering specific growth rate ranges and a separate set of unemployment rate threshold markets on Kalshi for August 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamentally different markets measuring unrelated economic indicators (GDP growth rate vs unemployment rate) in different timeframesHero tip: Treat these as separate uncorrelated markets. GDP growth markets resolve from official NBS preliminary accounting results for Q3 2026. Unemployment markets resolve from August 2026 NBS unemployment rate data. Do not assume any correlation between GDP growth ranges and unemployment thresholds.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Will resolve based on China's Y/Y GDP growth rate (%) from the 'Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP' release for Q3 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026. Markets are range-based brackets from <3.4% up to >=5.5% with specific percentage ranges
  • Kalshi: Will resolve based on China's unemployment rate for August 2026 against a series of threshold markets (above 4.7% through above 5.7%). These are binary threshold markets unrelated to GDP growth
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether China's officially reported unemployment rate for August 2026 exceeds any of the specified thresholds ranging from 4.7% to 5.7%. Each market corresponds to a distinct threshold, and if the reported rate surpasses that threshold, the associated market resolves to Yes. The structure allows for multiple markets to resolve positively if the unemployment rate meets or exceeds their respective thresholds, effectively creating a tiered resolution framework where higher thresholds represent more severe labor market conditions.