TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$149,897,520

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,214,596,905

340,805

Markets across

34,373

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,679

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
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Economics
Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in September
kalshi

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in September

Aug 3, 2026, 10:00 PM EST - Sep 16, 2026, 5:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$48,066
Volume 24h:
$205
96%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$22,692
0.21%

Cut 25bps

 - Kalshi

Cut 25bps - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 16, 2026

Time left: 19d:23h:58m

Will the Central Bank of Brazil Cut 25bps at the September Monetary Policy Meeting?

92%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 93¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 92% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% | APY: 276% 19 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
92%
5%
Yes 93¢No 10¢
N/A
$10,307
0.35%
12%
$6,277
2w 5d 23h
active
kalshi

Maintain current rate

9%
3%
Yes No 96¢
N/A
$5,108
2%
22%
$2,543
2w 5d 23h
active
kalshi

Cut more than 50bp

2%
Yes No 99¢
N/A
$3,131
0%
0%
$1,279
2w 5d 23h
active
kalshi

Hike 25bps

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$9,268
0.54%
49%
$5,477
2w 5d 23h
active
kalshi

Hike 50bps

1%
Yes 21¢No 100¢
21¢
N/A
$8,454
0%
31%
$3,849
2w 5d 23h
active
kalshi

Cut 50bps

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$5,957
0%
0.29%
$1,553
2w 5d 23h
active
kalshi

Hike more than 50bps

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$5,842
0%
0.03%
$1,713
2w 5d 23h
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks the Central Bank of Brazil's interest rate decision at its September 2026 meeting. Participants assess potential changes to the country's key policy rate, which influences economic conditions like inflation and growth. The outcome reflects whether the bank chooses to cut, maintain, or increase rates by specific amounts.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the Central Bank of Brazil at its September Monetary Policy Meeting. Each market corresponds to a specific rate change outcome: cutting or hiking rates by 25bp, 50bp, or more than 50bp, or maintaining the current rate. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; multiple policy rates do not affect resolution. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, the "No change" market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring between scheduled meetings do not impact contract resolution. All basis point ranges are inclusive, meaning that exact boundary values (e.g., exactly 25bp or 50bp) count toward the relevant market.