TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Bitcoin price on June 19? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 02d:11h:19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19?
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$500
Description
This event group tracks Bitcoin's price on June 19, 2026, across two major prediction platforms using different measurement methodologies and times. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close prices at noon ET, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT. The markets collectively cover price ranges from below $51,000 to above $75,000.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Settlement Value Mismatch: Two different times (12:00 PM ET vs 5:00 PM EDT) and two different data sources (Binance spot vs CF Benchmarks index) create independent resolution pathways for the same underlying asset on the same date.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve to the same price bracket. Bitcoin's 5-hour price movement between noon and 5 PM EDT can easily span multiple $2,000 brackets. Manage cross-platform exposure separately. Kalshi's BRTI averaging reduces flash-crash risk; Polymarket's single candle is more volatile. If trading both, use the noon Polymarket close as a leading indicator for afternoon Kalshi movement.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET (noon). Single exchange, single timestamp. Covers 11 price brackets from <$54k to >$72k in $2k increments. Tie-breaking rule: if price falls exactly between brackets, resolves to higher bracket.Kalshi:
Resolves on CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average before 5:00 PM EDT. Aggregated benchmark, 5-hour gap from Polymarket. Covers 50 granular price brackets from <$51k to >$75k in $500 increments. Each bracket is a separate Yes/No market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 consecutive seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) prices collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 19, 2026. The market is divided into 50 mutually exclusive price ranges, each spanning $500 intervals. The first outcome covers prices below $51,000, the second covers $51,000 to $51,499.99, the third covers $51,500 to $51,999.99, and subsequent outcomes continue in $500 increments up to the final outcome covering $75,000 and above. Exactly one outcome will resolve Yes based on where the 60-second average falls. CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index is the authoritative price source, and prices from other sources may differ.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect trader beliefs about future price, not current spot rates. On this market, the implied probabilities baked into contract prices show where participants expect Bitcoin to settle by the resolution date. These odds often diverge from spot price simply because traders are pricing in volatility, funding costs, and macro uncertainty over the coming months. Comparing the leading outcome's probability to historical price distributions can reveal whether the market is pricing in a bullish, bearish, or neutral bias relative to recent trading ranges.
Kalshi and Polymarket operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and liquidity pools, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform also attracts distinct trader demographics—some favor one venue's UX or contract design over the other. Arbitrageurs can exploit these spreads, but friction costs and withdrawal delays often prevent full convergence. Monitoring both prices helps traders identify which platform offers better value for their directional view on Bitcoin's June 19 settlement level.
This market resolves around Jun 19, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against credible public sources. The winning shares are those tied to the price range Bitcoin actually traded within on that date. Traders holding contracts matching the verified outcome receive their payout; all other positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the event, once price data is finalized and the platform processes settlement.
Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, geopolitical developments, and Bitcoin-specific news such as regulatory rulings or large institutional moves. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows and whale transactions can also shift trader sentiment. Technical levels and options expiry dates may trigger volatility spikes. Monitoring crypto news feeds, central bank calendars, and derivatives positioning helps traders anticipate sharp repricing before the June 19 settlement.
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