TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Bitcoin above ___ on June 1? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 14d:00h:30m
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price on Binance will exceed specific thresholds by the end of June 2026. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows a 11.0% probability that BTC will trade above $75,000, with a 6.0% probability it reaches $77,500. Resolution will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon ET on June 30, 2026. Watch for Bitcoin's price action as June 30, 2026 approaches, since that date marks the snapshot moment when Binance candle closes will determine the final outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Temporal scope and settlement value mismatch. Polymarket resolves on a single price snapshot at noon ET on June 1, 2025; Kalshi resolves on whether any price level is ever touched through 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. These measure different events across different time windows.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as fungible markets. Polymarket is a snapshot bet on a specific moment; Kalshi is a range bet over an extended period. A Yes on Polymarket does not imply Yes on Kalshi, and vice versa. Verify Polymarket market status, as the June 1, 2025 date may have already passed.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Point-in-time snapshot resolution. Resolves Yes if Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET on June 1, 2025 exceeds the specified threshold. Single moment, single source (Binance), single price point. Quote: 'the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final Close price higher than the price specified.'Kalshi:
Range-based resolution over extended window. Resolves Yes if Bitcoin price ever touches the threshold at any point between market issuance and 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. Any touch during the entire month triggers Yes. Quote: 'If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Kalshi
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $ 75000.00, then the market resolves to Yes. If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $ 77500.00, then the market resolves to Yes. If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $ 80000.00, then the market resolves to Yes. If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $ 82500.00, then the market resolves to Yes. If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $ 85000.00, then the market resolves to Yes. If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $ 87500.00, then the market resolves to Yes. If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $ 90000.00, then the market resolves to Yes. If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $ 92500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect collective trader expectations about Bitcoin's June 1 price, often diverging from current spot prices due to time horizon, funding costs, and risk premiums. Kalshi currently prices the outcome at 7.0%, while Polymarket sits at 0.0%, a spread of 7.0 percentage points. These odds incorporate macroeconomic forecasts, regulatory signals, and on-chain metrics that spot prices may lag in pricing, making them useful forward-looking indicators.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket serve different user bases, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks, creating natural price discrepancies. Kalshi may attract retail traders with lower barriers to entry, while Polymarket draws institutional capital. Differences in contract specifications—such as exact settlement dates, price feeds, or trimmed-mean methodologies—also drive wedges between odds. Arbitrage opportunities and varying risk appetites across platforms further explain why identical outcomes trade at different probabilities.
The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026. Outcome determination depends on Bitcoin's price level on the specified date, as measured by each platform's designated price feed or methodology. Kalshi and Polymarket may use different oracles or calculation methods, which can occasionally produce different settlement results. Check each platform's contract specifications for exact price source, timing window, and any adjustments applied to the final reference price.
Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation data, and macroeconomic recession signals that typically drive Bitcoin volatility. Regulatory announcements—particularly around spot Bitcoin ETFs or institutional custody—can shift long-term conviction. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows, whale accumulation, and network activity provide real-time sentiment. Geopolitical events, corporate treasury announcements, and Bitcoin halving cycles also influence price trajectories. Monitor these signals to anticipate probability swings on Kalshi and Polymarket before June 1.
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