TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$149,897,520

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,214,596,905

340,805

Markets across

34,373

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,679

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
polymarket

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$131,403
Volume 24h:
$1,770
29%
Liquidity:
$36,953
0.64%
Open interest:
$22,228N/A

Alibaba

 - Polymarket

Alibaba - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

66%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 67¢ buys you 149 shares | Odds: 66% Total Payout: $149 | Net Profit: $49 Multiplier: 1.49x | ROI: 49% High Projected APY: 7,262% 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
66%
1%
Yes 67¢No 35¢
$2,124
$45,676
0.1%
29%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Moonshot

18%
1%
Yes 18.7¢No 82.7¢
1.4¢
$1,888
$12,766
0%
37%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Z.ai

10%
Yes 11¢No 91¢
$2,491
$11,033
0%
88%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Tencent

2%
1%
Yes 2.8¢No 98.3¢
1.1¢
$3,030
$8,772
12%
107%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

2%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.6¢
0.4¢
$4,771
$12,498
5%
23%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

ByteDance

1%
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.4¢
0.8¢
$4,132
$11,656
0%
63%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

MiniMax

1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.5¢
0.6¢
$1,441
$6,234
0%
30%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Baidu

1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$5,494
$8,775
3%
18%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$3,541
$6,530
0%
49%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$4,264
$3,773
0%
22%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$3,777
$3,688
0%
39%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".