TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$149,897,520

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,214,596,905

340,805

Markets across

34,373

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,679

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
polymarket
predict

Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Jul 16, 2026, 11:02 PM EST - Aug 30, 2026, 8:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,301,402
Volume 24h:
$309,404
61%
Liquidity:
$50,263,167
2%
Open interest:
$241,861N/A

Alibaba

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 03d:02h:26m

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 94.6¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% APY not meaningful 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
94%
1%
Yes 94.6¢No 7.3¢
1.9¢
$10,228
$236,382
8%
51%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
predict

Alibaba

Trade
79%
16%
Yes 93.7¢No 36¢
29.7¢
$49,904,327
$114,681
6%
45%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
86.5%
Yes 94.2¢No 21.7¢
Avg: 15.8¢Max: 29.7¢
predict

Moonshot

Trade
15%
Yes 29¢No 98.9¢
27.9¢
$100,878
$170,107
0.12%
32%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.6¢
0.9¢
$11,256
$75,567
5%
38%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
8%
Yes 15.2¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 14.4¢Max: 27.9¢
predict

Z.ai

Trade
4%
Yes 5.9¢No 97.7¢
3.6¢
$108,625
$164,969
4%
71%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
3%
Yes 5.2¢No 98.3¢
3.5¢
$8,684
$145,395
9%
68%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3.5%
Yes 5.5¢No 98¢
Avg: 3.6¢Max: 3.6¢
predict

Tencent

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 99.9¢
3.9¢
$617
$316,953
33%
6,079%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

Tencent

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99¢
0.9¢
$5,637
$55,041
17%
90%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 3¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 2.4¢Max: 3.9¢
predict

Xiaomi

Trade
1%
11%
Yes 2.3¢No 99.8¢
2.1¢
$1,047
$82,304
0.13%
4%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$4,511
$51,436
6%
58%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2.1¢
predict

MiniMax

Trade
1%
Yes 2.3¢No 99.9¢
2.2¢
$32
$23
0.9%
8%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

MiniMax

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$7,476
$83,205
3%
35%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 2.2¢
predict

StepFun

Trade
1%
49%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$32,862
$146,000
0%
31%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

StepFun

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$6,569
$28,905
0%
766%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Meituan

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$491
$17,748
0%
2%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

Meituan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$9,932
$20,578
0%
229%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Baidu

Trade
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.9¢
1.8¢
$23
$634
0.03%
0.48%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$14,530
$94,167
0%
27%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 1.8¢
predict

Bytedance

Trade
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.9¢
1.5¢
$20
$42,090
0%
1%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

Bytedance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$3,551
$61,676
7%
60%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1.5¢
predict

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
—
$327
$249,414
202%
96,084%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$31,544
$144,128
0%
13%
N/A
3d 2h 26m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: —Max: —
Total markets: 22

Description

This event group determines which Chinese AI company will have the best AI model as measured by the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of August 2026. The resolution depends on the ranking of models from primarily Chinese companies on the specified leaderboard.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution criteria based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, including tie-breaking rules and contingency plans for source unavailability.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard

Core resolution logic:

  • Rank Chinese company models by their position on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard as of August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
  • Break ties first by Arena score (including unrounded values), then by alphabetical order of company names
  • Resolve to the company occupying first place under this ranking
  • If the leaderboard is permanently unavailable, resolve to "Other"

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Permanent Source Unavailability: If arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard is permanently unavailable by August 31, 2026, all markets resolve to "Other"
  • Tie in Arena Score: If two or more models have identical Arena scores, the tie is broken by alphabetical order of company names
Timing: Resolution occurs on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, based on the leaderboard snapshot at that exact timeOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Predict

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".