TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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August Inflation US - Monthly
kalshi
polymarket

August Inflation US - Monthly

Total volume:
$159,841
Volume 24h:
$9,341
3%
Liquidity:
$6,771
20%
Open interest:
$68,342
3%

Above 0.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 15d:01h:08m

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in August 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 15 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.0%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$10,921
0%
0.12%
$8,818
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above -0.1%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$5,691
0.8%
1%
$4,431
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above -0.3%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 2¢
2¢
N/A
$910
0%
8%
$872
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above 0.1%

Trade
98%
Yes 98¢No 5¢
3¢
N/A
$7,910
0.64%
5%
$4,719
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above -0.4%

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 2¢
2¢
N/A
$308
0%
1%
$257
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above 0.2%

Trade
87%
2%
Yes 87¢No 17¢
4¢
N/A
$24,391
1%
37%
$8,136
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above -0.2%

Trade
96%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$3,679
0%
0.05%
$2,905
2w 1d 1h
active
polymarket

-0.2%

Trade
3%
Yes 4.7¢No 99.7¢
4.4¢
$581
$229
24%
28%
N/A
2w 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
49.5%
Yes 52.4¢No 51.9¢
Avg: 4.2¢Max: 4.4¢
kalshi

Above 0.3%

Trade
49%
Yes 51¢No 51¢
2¢
N/A
$46,767
8%
51%
$15,459
2w 1d 1h
active
polymarket

0.4%

Trade
47%
Yes 48¢No 55¢
3¢
$1,104
$4,030
36%
134%
N/A
2w 15h
active
polymarket

0.3%

Trade
41%
13%
Yes 41¢No 75¢
16¢
$799
$2,354
0.3%
14%
N/A
2w 15h
active
kalshi

Above 0.5%

Trade
40%
36%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$7,511
0.89%
78%
$4,729
2w 1d 1h
active
polymarket

≥0.5%

Trade
8%
2%
Yes 12¢No 97¢
9¢
$1,047
$6,084
2%
313%
N/A
2w 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
24%
Yes 8.5¢No 98¢
Avg: 6.5¢Max: 9¢
kalshi

Above 0.8%

Trade
13%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$916
0%
75%
$530
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above 0.9%

Trade
12%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$1,370
0%
16%
$1,129
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above 0.4%

Trade
10%
4%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
N/A
$26,592
9%
83%
$9,192
2w 1d 1h
active
polymarket

0.2%

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 12¢No 92¢
4¢
$790
$745
1%
155%
N/A
2w 15h
active
kalshi

Above 0.7%

Trade
7%
6%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$3,975
0.63%
0.63%
$3,429
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above 0.6%

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$3,838
0%
0.34%
$3,409
2w 1d 1h
active
kalshi

Above 1.0%

Trade
4%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$487
0%
42%
$326
2w 1d 1h
active
polymarket

0.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.7¢
1.7¢
$458
$420
0%
30%
N/A
2w 15h
active
polymarket

0.1%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.7¢
0.5¢
$661
$281
0%
0%
N/A
2w 15h
active
polymarket

-0.1%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
0.5¢
$667
$255
0.57%
0.57%
N/A
2w 15h
active
polymarket

≤-0.3%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$664
$179
0.9%
11%
N/A
2w 15h
active
Total markets: 24

Description

This event group focuses on predicting the monthly change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026. The markets are centered around whether inflation will increase, decrease, or remain flat compared to the previous month, with specific thresholds defined for various percentage changes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold and directional divergence between Polymarket's decrease/increase/flat logic and Kalshi's 'increase by more than X%' logic.Hero tip: Focus trades on Polymarket for directional bets (increase/decrease/flat) and Kalshi for threshold-based triggers. Verify BLS report precision matches each platform's decimal requirements.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on whether monthly inflation will decrease by 0.3%, 0.2%, or 0.1%, stay flat at 0.0%, or increase by 0.1% to 0.5% or more. Uses BLS CPI-U report to one decimal place. Question examples: Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% or more in August?
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve if CPI increases by more than specified thresholds, including positive and negative values (e.g., >0.0%, >0.1%, >-0.1%). Example: If CPI increases by more than 0.0% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the single-decimal month-over-month CPI value for August 2026 as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The event contains six distinct thresholds, each establishing whether CPI increased beyond a specific percentage point level: -0.1%, 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.5%. Each threshold resolves independently to Yes if the published CPI exceeds that level. Markets close at 8:25 AM ET on September 11, 2026, the scheduled data release date. In the event of a federal government shutdown delaying the CPI release, the expiration date extends to the sooner of the actual release date or six months following the shutdown's end. No rounding is applied to the published value.