TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$115,807,555

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,188,566,556

336,771

Markets across

33,711

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,629

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
August Inflation US - Annual
kalshi
polymarket

August Inflation US - Annual

Total volume:
$275,218
Volume 24h:
$92,593
790%
Liquidity:
$30,641
50%
Open interest:
$163,567
54%

Above 2.9%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.9% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 14d:20h:21m

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in August 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.9%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$735
0.27%
22%
$708
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 2.8%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$248
2%
16%
$223
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 2.6%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$228
1%
19%
$197
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 2.7%

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$41,829
27,786%
27,786%
$26,204
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 2.5%

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$32,787
4,131%
6,565%
$16,490
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 3.1%

Trade
98%
1%
Yes 97¢No 6¢
3¢
N/A
$6,895
0.82%
12%
$4,002
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 3.2%

Trade
86%
3%
Yes 90¢No 14¢
4¢
N/A
$19,826
11%
24%
$12,803
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
84%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$1,572
0%
10%
$868
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 3.3%

Trade
57%
4%
Yes 57¢No 44¢
1¢
N/A
$47,749
18%
62%
$32,712
2w 20h
active
polymarket

3.4%

Trade
48%
4%
Yes 49¢No 53¢
2¢
$8,828
$13,421
10%
129%
N/A
2w 10h
active
polymarket

3.3%

Trade
30%
1%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
$4,200
$7,978
14%
57%
N/A
2w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 3.4%

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 21¢No 81¢
2¢
N/A
$34,706
14%
82%
$29,824
2w 20h
active
polymarket

3.5%

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
3¢
$3,805
$8,720
1%
159%
N/A
2w 10h
active
polymarket

3.2%

Trade
10%
3%
Yes 11.9¢No 91¢
2.9¢
$2,232
$1,200
24%
60%
N/A
2w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 3.5%

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$21,634
13%
123%
$16,420
2w 20h
active
polymarket

3.8%

Trade
3%
Yes 5.6¢No 99.7¢
5.3¢
$783
$782
0%
47%
N/A
2w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 3.6%

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$9,447
0.15%
28%
$8,898
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 3.8%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$2,804
2%
16%
$2,230
2w 20h
active
polymarket

3.6%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 99¢
1.5¢
$1,520
$1,077
0%
138%
N/A
2w 10h
active
polymarket

3.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.8¢
1.8¢
$1,935
$877
0%
40%
N/A
2w 10h
active
polymarket

3.1%

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.6¢
1.4¢
$1,800
$789
0%
50%
N/A
2w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 3.7%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,383
6%
35%
$2,220
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 4.3%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,188
0.22%
1%
$2,840
2w 20h
active
kalshi

Above 4.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,125
0.09%
12%
$1,519
2w 20h
active
polymarket

≥4.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$1,169
$635
0%
25%
N/A
2w 10h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 25 of 38

Description

This event group focuses on predicting the annual inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the twelve months ending August 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets consistently use the official BLS CPI report for August 2026 as the resolution source, with inflation measured to one decimal place.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the percentage change in the CPI over the 12-month period ending August 2026.
  • Inflation is reported to one decimal place by the BLS, and this precision will be used for resolution.
  • Markets with thresholds (e.g., >3.0%, >3.1%, etc.) will resolve to Yes if the reported value meets or exceeds the threshold, and No otherwise.
  • The Polymarket market for 4.0% or more resolves to Yes if the reported value is 4.0% or higher.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • BLS Report Delay: If the BLS does not release the August 2026 CPI report on the scheduled date, the market will resolve based on the most recent previous month with available data.
  • Exact Threshold Values: For thresholds like 3.0%, the market resolves to Yes if the reported value is 3.0% or higher. For example, a report of exactly 3.0% triggers a Yes outcome for the >3.0% market and a No outcome for the 2.9% or less market.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon the release of the BLS Consumer Price Index report for August 2026, currently scheduled for September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the Consumer Price Index year-over-year percentage increase for the twelve months ending August 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and represented to one decimal place. Each market resolves to Yes if the CPI increase exceeds its specified threshold. The thresholds range incrementally from above 3.0% to above 5.0%. In the event of a federal government shutdown that delays data release or impacts the reliability of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of either the actual release of the CPI data or six months following the end of the government shutdown.