TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$149,897,520
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,214,596,905
340,805
Markets across
34,373
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,679
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Will Used Avg. Transaction Prices (ATPs) for December 2026 be above $25,000?
$
Description
This event group tracks Apple's market capitalization at the end of 2026 across multiple bracket markets on Polymarket, and used average transaction prices for Edmunds on Kalshi.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Fundamentally different resolution metrics (Apple market cap vs Edmunds used car prices)Hero tip: Do not cross-hedge between these platforms. Polymarket resolves to Apple's market cap; Kalshi resolves to Edmunds used car prices. These are separate bets with no correlation.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026, calculated using official closing prices and shares outstanding
- Kalshi: Resolves based on Used Avg. Transaction Prices (ATPs) for December 2026 as reported by Edmunds, with multiple threshold options
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Kalshi
The event settles based on the first December 2026 Used Average Transaction Price (ATP) value published by Edmunds, with subsequent revisions disregarded. All markets resolve according to whether this monthly average exceeds designated price thresholds ranging from $24,000 to $30,000. The statistic reflects the average price for the entire month of December 2026, not a single day’s value on December 31. Each market’s 'Yes' outcome is triggered if the reported ATP meets or surpasses its specific threshold, while 'No' settles if the value remains below that level. Consistency across all rules ensures a clear, unified reference point for settlement.
