TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$142,891,824

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,211,057,904

339,560

Markets across

34,155

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,672

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)
polymarket

#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)

Jul 20, 2026, 9:00 PM EST - Aug 31, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$63,629
Volume 24h:
$2,972
31%
Liquidity:
$10,954
12%
Open interest:
$7,599N/A

Google

 - Polymarket

Google - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:04h:22m

Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026?

67%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 69¢ buys you 145 shares | Odds: 67% Total Payout: $145 | Net Profit: $45 Multiplier: 1.45x | ROI: 45% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Google

Trade
67%
21%
Yes 69¢No 35¢
$264
$14,112
8%
18%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Moonshot

32%
24%
Yes 33.9¢No 70¢
3.9¢
$307
$6,975
9%
125%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Meta

4%
1%
Yes 5.5¢No 98.5¢
$480
$12,860
2%
5%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Z.ai

3%
8%
Yes 5.5¢No 99.7¢
5.2¢
$502
$2,126
22%
84%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

OpenAI

1%
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.8¢
1.1¢
$565
$1,994
8%
28%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Alibaba

0%
1%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$473
$11,808
2%
9%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Microsoft

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$508
$1,588
10%
34%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Anthropic

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$443
$1,860
9%
32%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$485
$1,415
0%
4%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$553
$1,157
0%
10%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$657
$1,109
0%
6%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$579
$887
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$533
$851
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Thinky

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$710
$830
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$572
$774
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Amazon

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$481
$589
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Mistral

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$507
$572
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Tencent

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$702
$565
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

Nvidia

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$622
$557
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$509
$527
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
polymarket

MiniMax

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$501
$474
0%
0%
N/A
4d 4h 22m
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".