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$114.4b

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$84,940,147

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1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

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4,574

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0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
polymarket

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Jun 26, 2026, 2:44 PM EST - Sep 29, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$772,820
Volume 24h:
$4,223
0.29%
Liquidity:
$15,171
58%
Open interest:
$27,686N/A

August 31

 - Polymarket

August 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Time left: 04d:13h:47m

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?

10%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 12.7¢ buys you 787 shares | Odds: 10% Total Payout: $787 | Net Profit: $687 Multiplier: 7.87x | ROI: 687% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

August 31

Trade
10%
11%
Yes 12.7¢No 92.9¢
5.6¢
$14,935
$111,639
4%
30%
N/A
4d 13h 47m
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
N/A
N/A
37¢
$236
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

July 31

View
97%
Yes 97.9¢No 3¢
0.9¢
N/A
$529,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

July 14

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120,331
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 7

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,875
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$859
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Hormuz shipping blockade market tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for whether zero commercial vessels will transit the Strait of Hormuz by a specified deadline. The dashboard displays current implied probability, 24-hour volume activity, and order book depth, allowing traders to monitor how market sentiment evolves as geopolitical conditions shift. This market aggregates trader conviction across the platform, reflecting collective expectations about maritime chokepoint disruption and its economic consequences.

Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time information, geopolitical risk premiums, and tail-event probabilities that institutional analysts may underweight. While analysts typically rely on historical shipping data and diplomatic statements, market participants price in sudden escalation scenarios and supply-chain hedging behavior. Comparing the implied probability here to published forecasts from energy economists and maritime security firms reveals whether traders are pricing in greater or lower disruption risk than the consensus view.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker mechanism, where buying YES or NO shares moves the price based on the liquidity pool. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability reflects the last executed trade price, and wider bid-ask spreads indicate lower liquidity or higher uncertainty. As new information emerges—sanctions escalation, naval incidents, or diplomatic breakthroughs—traders adjust positions, shifting the price to reflect updated expectations about a complete Hormuz transit blockade.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether any commercial ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between now and that deadline. Traders holding YES shares profit if at least one vessel completes passage; NO holders win if the strait remains completely closed to shipping traffic throughout the period.

Major catalysts include military escalation or de-escalation in the Persian Gulf, new sanctions regimes, diplomatic breakthroughs, or direct attacks on shipping infrastructure. Tanker insurance premiums, port congestion reports, and OPEC production announcements also influence trader positioning. Unexpected naval incidents, political leadership changes, or international mediation efforts can trigger sharp repricing. Real-time shipping tracking data and geopolitical news flow will drive volatility as traders reassess the probability of a sustained blockade through the resolution date.