TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether Spain will advance to the Semifinals stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Across Kalshi, Predict, Polymarket, and Limitless, the aggregated consensus probability stands at 60.0% for Spain reaching the Semifinals. Resolution will be determined by Official FIFA information, with credible reporting consensus serving as a secondary source if needed. Watch for Spain's performance through the group stage and knockout rounds leading up to the Semifinals window closing on July 26, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official FIFA information; credible reporting consensus may be used as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves Yes if the named team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals
- Market resolves No if the team is mathematically eliminated from advancing to the Semifinals
- Market resolves No if the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled
- Market resolves No if the 2026 FIFA World Cup is postponed after July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
- Market resolves No if the Semifinals matchup has not been declared by the deadline
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Mathematical Elimination: Once a team cannot advance to the Semifinals regardless of remaining match outcomes, the market resolves No immediately
- Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve No
- Semifinals Declaration Deadline: If the Semifinals matchup is not officially declared by July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No
- Source Hierarchy: Official FIFA announcements take precedence; credible reporting consensus is used only when official sources are unavailable
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official FIFA declaration of Semifinals qualification or upon mathematical elimination, whichever comes first. Final deadline for resolution is July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ETPolymarket
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Mexico is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ireland is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Denmark is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Korea Republic is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If South Africa is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Czechia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If North Macedonia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Italy is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Switzerland is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Canada is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Northern Ireland is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Qatar is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wales is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brazil is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Morocco is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Scotland is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Haiti is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If USA is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Turkiye is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Paraguay is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Australia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Slovakia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kosovo is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Romania is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Germany is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ecuador is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ivory Coast is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Curacao is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Netherlands is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Japan is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tunisia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ukraine is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Poland is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Albania is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sweden is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Belgium is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Egypt is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If IR Iran is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If New Zealand is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Spain is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Uruguay is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Saudi Arabia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cape Verde is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If France is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Norway is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Senegal is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bolivia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Iraq is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Suriname is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Argentina is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Austria is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Algeria is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jordan is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Portugal is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Colombia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Uzbekistan is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jamaica is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Congo DR is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If New Caledonia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If England is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Croatia is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ghana is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Panama is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Limitless
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Limitless operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by bookmakers. This means prices reflect live consensus among thousands of traders and adjust continuously as new information emerges. Sportsbooks typically build in wider margins and update less frequently. For World Cup semifinals, prediction markets often react faster to team injuries, qualifying results, and tactical shifts, making them valuable for comparing against traditional sportsbook lines to identify value.
Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Limitless serve different trader bases, operate under distinct regulatory frameworks, and may list slightly different outcome definitions for World Cup semifinals qualification. Liquidity concentration, user geography, and fee structures also vary between platforms. These structural differences mean identical events can trade at different implied probabilities. Monitoring both venues reveals arbitrage signals and helps you understand which platform's consensus is more reliable based on volume and participant sophistication.
The World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals market resolves on Jul 26, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official outcome of the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament as it progresses through the knockout stages. Once the semifinals are complete, the market settles based on which nations actually advanced to that stage. Traders should monitor qualifying rounds, group-stage results, and knockout matchups leading up to resolution to inform their positions.
Key catalysts include World Cup qualifying results, which directly determine which nations enter the tournament; major player injuries or suspensions affecting squad depth; coaching changes or tactical shifts; head-to-head matchup draws in group stages; and momentum swings during early knockout rounds. Geopolitical events, weather, and home-field advantage in host nations also influence semifinal odds. Real-time tracking across Kalshi and Limitless helps you spot price reactions to these developments before they fully propagate.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.