TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of an MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 7:15 PM ET, including the game winner and first-inning scoring. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict shows 100.0% probability for the leading outcome. Resolution will be determined by official MLB statistics published on MLB.com. Watch for the game's completion on June 16, 2026 to settle all related markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (San Francisco win and Atlanta win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market unresolvable. Polymarket and Predict are internally consistent but diverge from Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market in its current form. The Polymarket and Predict markets are safe and consistent with each other. Request immediate clarification from Kalshi on whether the market should resolve to Yes/No based on either team winning, or if one outcome should map to No.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary winner market: resolves to 'San Francisco Giants' if Giants win, 'Atlanta Braves' if Braves win. Cancellations/ties/no makeup game resolve 50-50. Postponements keep market open. Primary source: official MLB statistics within 24 hours, credible reporting as fallback.Predict:
Identical to Polymarket: resolves to 'San Francisco Giants' if Giants win, 'Atlanta Braves' if Braves win. Cancellations/ties/no makeup game resolve 50-50. Postponements keep market open. Primary source: official MLB statistics within 24 hours, credible reporting as fallback.Kalshi:
CRITICAL FLAW: States 'If San Francisco wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If Atlanta wins... resolves to Yes.' Both possible outcomes map to Yes, leaving no logical path for No resolution. Market is logically contradictory and unresolvable as written.
Polymarket
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for June 16 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Kalshi
This market covers the San Francisco vs Atlanta professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 7:15 PM EDT. Resolution depends on the final outcome of the game, with separate markets for each team's victory. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than two days after the original date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.
Predict
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for June 16 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and sportsbooks price games differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect pure trader belief—no house edge. This market's odds on Kalshi and Polymarket may diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because traders are directly exposed to outcome risk. Comparing this market to major sportsbooks can reveal sharp edges, especially when one side has concentrated conviction or when new information hasn't yet propagated across all venues.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence price discovery. Polymarket and Predict may weight recent team performance, injury reports, or betting trends differently based on their active user base. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes emerge when one platform lags in incorporating new information—for instance, a late-breaking roster update might move Predict faster than Polymarket if its traders react quicker. Monitoring both venues helps you identify temporary mispricings before they correct.
This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, once the game concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will reflect the official final score and any applicable league rulings. Until that point, traders can buy and sell positions as new information—such as lineup changes, weather updates, or momentum shifts—becomes available. Resolution timing is firm, so positions held through the end date will settle based on the confirmed game result.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, injury reports on star players, recent team form and head-to-head records, and weather conditions on game day. Trades or call-ups can shift market sentiment quickly, as can unexpected lineup decisions by either manager. Betting market activity and sharp money flowing into one side often precedes prediction market moves. Historical matchup trends, home-field advantage, and travel fatigue also influence trader positioning. Monitor sports news and team social media closely—early movers often capture the largest gains before consensus prices shift.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.