TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 04d:00h:30m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the U.S. Open?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Scottie Scheffler will win the 2026 PGA Tour U.S. Open golf tournament. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability for Scheffler to claim the title stands at 14.0%, with a secondary outcome at 13.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official PGA Tour website announcement following the conclusion of the tournament. Watch for the tournament's completion on or around June 21, 2026, when the PGA Tour will officially declare the winner.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
PGA Tour official website (https://www.pgatour.com/)Core resolution logic:
- A named player resolves to Yes (Kalshi) or wins (Polymarket) if and only if they are declared the official winner of the 2026 U.S. Open by PGA Tour rules.
- If a named player is eliminated from contention based on official tournament rules, the market resolves to No.
- In the event of a tie, the official PGA Tour tournament rules determine the single winner; if multiple winners are announced, Polymarket resolves to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically.
- If an unlisted player wins the tournament, Kalshi markets resolve to No and Polymarket resolves to Other.
- All Polymarket markets resolve by June 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET; if no winner is announced by this deadline, Polymarket resolves to Other.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tie or Playoff: If multiple players tie and a playoff is held, the official PGA Tour-determined winner is the resolution outcome. If multiple winners are announced simultaneously, Polymarket uses alphabetical last-name ordering.
- Unlisted Player Victory: If a player not listed on either platform wins the tournament, Kalshi individual player markets resolve to No, and Polymarket resolves to Other.
- Player Elimination: If a named player is eliminated from contention per official tournament rules before completion, their market resolves to No immediately.
- Late Resolution: Polymarket has a hard deadline of June 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET; if no winner is announced by then, it resolves to Other. Kalshi does not specify a deadline but resolves upon official PGA Tour announcement.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official announcement of the 2026 U.S. Open winner by the PGA Tour, expected during the tournament week. Polymarket enforces a final deadline of June 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 U.S. Open tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the U.S. Open tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the U.S. Open tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by June 27, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Kalshi
If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, Tournament Winner contracts for that golfer will resolve to No. Golfers who withdraw after beginning play remain eligible to win. Resolution is based on the official PGA tournament results.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, often incorporating a margin. Prediction markets, by contrast, aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery—meaning odds reflect what participants actually believe will happen. This market frequently shows tighter spreads and faster reaction to breaking news than traditional sportsbooks, though both sources can inform your decision-making when used together.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks, which can cause temporary price gaps on the same outcome. Kalshi and Polymarket may also weight recent data or player news at different speeds, and their fee structures influence how aggressively traders arbitrage. These differences typically narrow over time as informed traders exploit mispricings, but they create windows where savvy participants can find value by comparing both venues before placing a bet.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner is determined by the official tournament results, and resolution occurs shortly after the conclusion of play. Until that date, prices will fluctuate based on player performance, injuries, course conditions, and other factors that traders believe affect the final outcome.
Player injuries, recent tournament form, and weather forecasts for the course are primary catalysts that shift odds in this market. Major PGA Tour results in the weeks leading up to the event often trigger repricing, as do changes in player rankings or public commentary from golf analysts. Equipment or swing adjustments, caddy changes, and even social media sentiment can influence trader positioning. Monitoring professional golf news and player statements will help you anticipate moves before the broader market reacts.
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