TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Will Opensea launch a token by ___?
polymarket
predict

Will Opensea launch a token by ___?

Total volume:
$7,355,482
Volume 24h:
$6,843
125%
Liquidity:
$21,389
38%
Open interest:
$37,220N/A

December 31, 2026

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

7%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 9.2¢ buys you 1,087 shares | Odds: 7% Total Payout: $1,087 | Net Profit: $987 Multiplier: 10.87x | ROI: 987% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 9.2¢No 95¢
4.2¢
$3,873
$228,549
0.17%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

December 31, 2026

Trade
4%
Yes 6¢No 98¢
4¢
$11,121
$1,384,479
0%
0.18%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.4%
Yes 7.6¢No 96.5¢
Avg: 4.1¢Max: 4.2¢
predict

September 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$6,395
$3,305,482
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

September 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$152,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,030,401
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
predict

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$560,805
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$275,634
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
predict

March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$417,901
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event group tracks whether OpenSea will launch an officially tradable fungible governance or utility token by various dates in 2026 (March 31, June 30, September 30, and December 31). The markets require the token to be actively transferable and tradable on public markets—announcements alone do not qualify.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms require an officially launched, actively tradable fungible token by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date; announcements do not qualify; primary source is OpenSea with credible reporting consensus as backup.Primary resolution logic: Official OpenSea announcement and blockchain verification; consensus of credible reporting if primary source is ambiguous

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be officially launched by OpenSea (not a third party)
  • Token must be fungible (all units identical and interchangeable)
  • Token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable on at least one public market or blockchain
  • Announcements of intent or future plans do not qualify; only live, tradable tokens resolve to Yes
  • Resolution deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the specified date (March 31, June 30, September 30, or December 31, 2026)
  • Non-fungible tokens (e.g., ERC-1155) explicitly do not qualify

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Announcement without trading: If OpenSea announces a token but it is not yet publicly tradable by the deadline, the market resolves No.
  • Token launched after deadline: If OpenSea launches a token after 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, the market resolves No for that date; earlier-deadline markets also resolve No.
  • Multi-chain deployment: If OpenSea launches a fungible token on any single blockchain (Ethereum, Solana, etc.) that meets the trading criteria, the market resolves Yes.
  • Governance vs. utility token: Both governance and utility tokens qualify as long as they are fungible and meet the trading requirement; token purpose does not affect resolution.
  • Credible reporting consensus: If OpenSea's official channels are unclear or unavailable, a consensus of credible media and blockchain explorers confirming a live, tradable token launch will be used for resolution.
Timing: Resolution occurs at 11:59 PM ET on each specified date (March 31, June 30, September 30, December 31, 2026). Markets are evaluated independently; an earlier market resolving Yes does not automatically resolve later markets to Yes, but does provide strong evidence for those markets.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Opensea officially launches a fungible token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The token must be fungible, meaning all units of the token are identical and interchangeable. Examples of qualifying fungible token standards include: - ERC-20 or compatible/derivative standards on any EVM-compatible chain - SPL / SPL Token-2022 standard on Solana - Native blockchain tokens (e.g., a project's own Layer 1 chain coin) - Equivalent fungible token standards on other blockchains Non-fungible tokens such as ERC-1155 tokens will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the aggregated probabilities of whether Opensea will launch a token by a specific date. Currently, the Polymarket and Predict markets combine for a total volume of $7,355,482, with $383 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a consensus view on the likelihood of this event occurring, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. The Opensea token launch market provides a unique way to monitor sentiment and potential catalysts surrounding a highly anticipated event in the crypto space, offering a combined perspective from two leading prediction platforms.

Unlike traditional spot markets that reflect current value, prediction market odds, like those in this market, represent expectations about future events. The price of a 'yes' outcome—that Opensea *will* launch a token—indicates the probability traders assign to that happening. This differs from assessing the potential value of a token if it were already trading. While a high probability doesn’t guarantee success, it suggests strong belief among market participants. Spot prices are reactive; this market is anticipatory, offering a forward-looking perspective on the potential for a new crypto asset.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and risk appetite. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different levels of participation and information flow can also lead to price discrepancies. For example, Polymarket currently favors the outcome of a launch at 7.1%, while Predict leans toward no launch at 4.0%. These differences reflect the unique perspectives and trading activity within each platform, creating opportunities for arbitrage and highlighting varying levels of conviction.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Opensea has officially announced and launched a tradable token before the specified date. The outcome will be based on publicly available information and widely accepted definitions of a token launch, ensuring a transparent and objective determination. The market’s resolution is not dependent on any single source but relies on broad consensus regarding the event’s occurrence.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Opensea regarding tokenization plans, partnerships with blockchain projects, or regulatory developments related to crypto assets would all be major catalysts. Positive or negative news regarding Opensea’s financial performance or user growth could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected events in the broader crypto market, such as a major security breach or a shift in regulatory policy, could also indirectly affect the likelihood of a token launch and, therefore, the price action in this market.