TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.6b

24H VOL:

$124,291,538

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,192,009,184

337,556

Markets across

34,185

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,362

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
limitless
predict

Will Metamask's FDV exceed $700M one day after launch?

Total volume:
$23,321,348
Volume 24h:
$1,851
7%
Liquidity:
$499,442
2%
Open interest:
$187,702N/A

$300M

 - Polymarket

$300M - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?

10%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 11¢ buys you 909 shares | Odds: 10% Total Payout: $909 | Net Profit: $809 Multiplier: 9.09x | ROI: 809% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$300M

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 11¢No 92¢
3¢
$12,458
$83,256
0%
0.56%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$700M

Trade
9%
Yes 9.6¢No 91.2¢
0.8¢
$31,000
$1,386,973
0%
0.48%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
limitless

Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 92¢
6¢
N/A
$15,675
0%
0.12%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

$700M

Trade
8%
Yes 7.8¢No 92.3¢
0.1¢
$59,986
$3,939,549
0%
0.08%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
8.3%
Yes 8.5¢No 91.8¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 6¢
predict

$3B

Trade
9%
Yes 8.5¢No 91.6¢
0.1¢
$64,312
$2,968,788
0.02%
0.56%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$3B

Trade
8%
Yes 8.9¢No 92.7¢
1.6¢
$17,907
$330,479
0.04%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
8.5%
Yes 8.7¢No 92.2¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1.6¢
polymarket

$1B

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$21,679
$609,810
0%
0.06%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

$1B

Trade
8%
Yes 7.7¢No 92.4¢
0.1¢
$63,625
$8,925,404
0%
0.01%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
8.5%
Yes 8.4¢No 92.2¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

$100M

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$27,176
$52,982
0%
4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$4B

Trade
8%
Yes 8.5¢No 92¢
0.5¢
$25,830
$346,470
0.19%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

$4B

Trade
8%
Yes 8.1¢No 93¢
1.1¢
$67,768
$3,051,856
0%
0.59%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
8%
Yes 8.3¢No 92.5¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1.1¢
predict

$2B

Trade
8%
Yes 7.9¢No 92.7¢
0.6¢
$70,130
$1,188,724
0.02%
0.4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$2B

Trade
7%
Yes 7.4¢No 93.9¢
1.3¢
$19,988
$402,637
0%
0.15%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
7.5%
Yes 7.7¢No 93.3¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1.3¢
polymarket

$500M

Trade
8%
2%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
$17,584
$18,745
0%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 14

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms (Limitless, Polymarket, Predict) use identical resolution criteria: FDV measurement at 4:00 PM ET one day after launch, most liquid price source, and December 31, 2026 deadline.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Metamask token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a valid launch
  • Resolution timestamp is fixed at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following launch date
  • FDV is calculated from the most liquid price source available at the resolution timestamp
  • Each threshold market resolves Yes if FDV strictly exceeds the specified amount, No if FDV is equal to or below the threshold
  • If Metamask does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Launch Definition: Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable; private or restricted launches do not qualify
  • Liquidity Source Selection: If multiple price sources exist at 4:00 PM ET resolution time, the most liquid venue (highest volume/tightest spreads) is used to determine FDV
  • Threshold Boundary: FDV must strictly exceed the threshold amount to resolve Yes; FDV equal to the threshold resolves No
  • Deadline Non-Launch: If token has not launched by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve No regardless of any subsequent launch
  • Multi-Day Launch Window: If launch occurs on Day X, resolution measurement occurs at 4:00 PM ET on Day X+1; no ambiguity in calendar day calculation
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Metamask token launch, with a hard deadline of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for any launch to occurOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than $700M 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds for whether Metamask's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within one day of its public launch. It tracks consensus across Polymarket and Predict, displaying the current implied probability on each venue. The aggregate view reflects total trading volume of $23,321,348 across all platforms, with $1,832 traded in the last 24 hours. This multi-platform approach reveals how different market participants price the same outcome, helping traders identify arbitrage opportunities and gauge genuine market conviction around Metamask's initial valuation.

Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective belief about Metamask's post-launch valuation, independent of current token price or pre-launch hype. While spot markets price existing assets, these prediction markets isolate the specific outcome of whether FDV will surpass the threshold exactly one day after launch. The odds incorporate uncertainty around launch timing, initial trading volume, and broader crypto market conditions. Comparing prediction odds to traditional valuation models or analyst targets can reveal whether markets are pricing in optimism or skepticism relative to consensus expectations. Divergence between the two often signals mispricing opportunities.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price discrepancies. Polymarket currently shows 9.5% implied probability, while Predict reflects 8.5%, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Differences may stem from varying user bases, regulatory constraints by jurisdiction, or timing lags in order-book depth. Lower-volume platforms like Predict may exhibit wider bid-ask spreads and slower price discovery. Sophisticated traders exploit these gaps through cross-platform arbitrage until prices converge, making the spread a useful indicator of market efficiency and opportunity.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027, marking the deadline for determining whether Metamask's FDV meets the specified threshold exactly one day after its public launch. Resolution hinges on verifiable data about Metamask's fully diluted valuation at that precise moment, typically derived from on-chain metrics, official announcements, or trusted data feeds. The outcome is binary: either the threshold is exceeded or it is not. Traders should monitor official Metamask communications and market data sources as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome will be measured and confirmed.

Key catalysts include official Metamask launch announcements, token supply details, and pre-launch investor sentiment. Broader crypto market rallies or downturns directly influence perceived valuations of new tokens. Regulatory news affecting Ethereum or decentralized finance could shift expectations around Metamask's initial demand. Competitor launches or partnerships announced by Metamask may boost or dampen enthusiasm. Social media momentum and community engagement in the days before launch often correlate with initial valuation spikes. Macroeconomic events and risk-on or risk-off sentiment in traditional markets also ripple through crypto, affecting how aggressively traders bid up new token valuations on day one.