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Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
polymarket

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

Jul 24, 2026, 5:07 PM EST - Dec 31, 2028, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$444,486
Volume 24h:
$4,501
312%
Liquidity:
$41,161
8%
Open interest:
$127,566N/A

December 31, 2028

 - Polymarket

December 31, 2028 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2028

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?

35%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 37¢ buys you 270 shares | Odds: 35% Total Payout: $270 | Net Profit: $170 Multiplier: 2.70x | ROI: 170% | APY: 58% 796 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31, 2028

Trade
35%
Yes 37¢No 68¢
5¢
$8,123
$60,773
0.02%
1%
N/A
2y 2mo
active
polymarket

December 31, 2027

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
$11,899
$90,328
0.66%
3%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
6%
2%
Yes 6.1¢No 94.5¢
0.6¢
$21,139
$293,384
1%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) will declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 26.5% probability, while the probability of CMI declaring a solution by December 31, 2027 is 16.5%. The market resolves based on official declarations from the CMI, with their website (https://www.claymath.org) serving as the primary resolution source. Keep an eye on any announcements from the CMI regarding progress on the remaining Millennium Prize Problems, as a qualifying declaration or award before January 1, 2029 will determine the outcome of this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the Millennium Prize Problem solution market, alongside 24-hour volume of $4,501. It shows how traders price the likelihood of the Clay Mathematics Institute declaring a Millennium Prize Problem solved by the deadline, with visual trends and 34.5% top outcome probability displayed for quick insights into market sentiment.

Currently, this market reflects a strong expectation of a solution announcement before the deadline, contrasting with many traditional analyst forecasts that remain more cautious. While analysts often weigh technical hurdles and verification timelines, traders on Polymarket incorporate real-time information flows and risk assessments. This divergence can highlight emerging signals or shifts in expert confidence that aren’t yet reflected in conventional research reports.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders actively set prices through buying and selling contracts, with the top outcome currently priced around 34.5%. Market depth and liquidity influence price discovery, and volume of $444,486 helps gauge participation levels. The price mechanism captures collective trader judgment on the probability of a Millennium Prize Problem being declared solved by the set deadline.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A declared solution by the Clay Mathematics Institute before the deadline will settle one way, while no such announcement by that date settles the opposite outcome. The verification process relies on authoritative, publicly available confirmation of the solution’s validation.