TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$101,900,907

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,178,729,067

335,697

Markets across

33,528

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,579

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Fed Decision in December?
polymarket
predict

Fed Decision in December?

Jul 29, 2026, 8:43 PM EST - Dec 9, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$335,608
Volume 24h:
$47,015
356%
Liquidity:
$710,535
52%
Open interest:
$82,588N/A

No change

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 9, 2026

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 64.9¢ buys you 154 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $154 | Net Profit: $54 Multiplier: 1.54x | ROI: 54% | APY: 356% 104 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

No change

Trade
59%
Yes 64.9¢No 47.8¢
12.7¢
$32,135
$6
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
polymarket

No change

Trade
57%
3%
Yes 58¢No 43¢
1¢
$111,202
$56,194
7%
31%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
58%
Yes 61.5¢No 45.4¢
Avg: 6.9¢Max: 12.7¢
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
36%
4%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
1¢
$99,145
$88,636
43%
135%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

25 bps increase

Trade
N/A
N/A
13¢
$29,764
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
36%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
Avg: 7¢Max: 13¢
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 6.8¢No 95.2¢
2¢
$126,220
$67,889
8%
36%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

25 bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
6%
Yes 6.8¢No 95.2¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
2%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.4¢
0.2¢
$114,862
$66,462
13%
45%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

50+ bps increase

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,917
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.2¢
0.3¢
$107,500
$56,420
7%
62%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

50+ bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,895
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.2¢
Avg: 0.3¢Max: 0.3¢
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group tracks whether the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates by specific amounts after its December 2026 meeting. The markets resolve based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to the level prior to the meeting, with changes rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution logic based on the FOMC's December 2026 meeting outcome and publish the same official sources for verification.Primary resolution logic: FOMC’s statement after the December 2026 meeting and the Federal Reserve's official website

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate versus the level prior to the December 2026 meeting
  • Changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points
  • If no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Partial Change Rounding: If the change is 12.5 basis points, it will be rounded up to 25 basis points and resolve to the relevant bracket
  • No Statement Fallback: If no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket
Timing: The market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the December meeting with relevant data is issued, or by the end of the next scheduled meeting if no statement is releasedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.