TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.8b

24H VOL:

$118,500,677

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,212,020,469

340,542

Markets across

35,131

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,465

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Fed Decision in January?
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Fed Decision in January?

Total volume:
$117,718
Volume 24h:
$6N/A
Liquidity:
$359,228
2%
Open interest:
$39,744
0%

Fed maintains rate

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 27, 2027

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?

61%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 61¢ buys you 164 shares | Odds: 61% Total Payout: $164 | Net Profit: $64 Multiplier: 1.64x | ROI: 64% | APY: 228% 152 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fed maintains rate

Trade
61%
Yes 61¢No 42¢
3¢
N/A
$27,063
0%
4%
$11,513
5mo 2d
active
polymarket

No change

Trade
61%
Yes 61¢No 40¢
1¢
$51,753
$16,164
0%
0.32%
N/A
5mo 2d
active
predict

No change

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.4¢
$29,945
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
61%
Yes 61¢No 41¢
Avg: 34.5¢Max: 99.4¢
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
22%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
$30,640
$12,062
0%
40%
N/A
5mo 2d
active
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
16%
Yes 20¢No 83¢
3¢
N/A
$11,213
0%
14%
$8,161
5mo 2d
active
predict

25 bps increase

Trade
N/A
N/A
77.9¢
$29,733
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
19%
Yes 21¢No 81¢
Avg: 27.3¢Max: 77.9¢
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
$28,354
$11,062
0%
32%
N/A
5mo 2d
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 90¢
3¢
N/A
$10,783
0%
10%
$8,756
5mo 2d
active
predict

25 bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.3¢
$29,698
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
13.5%
Yes 14¢No 88¢
Avg: 34.4¢Max: 99.3¢
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
5%
Yes 5.3¢No 96.3¢
1.6¢
$74,829
$12,838
0%
76%
N/A
5mo 2d
active
kalshi

Cut >25bps

Trade
2%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$8,080
0%
59%
$5,836
5mo 2d
active
predict

50+ bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3.5%
Yes 5.2¢No 96.6¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Hike >25bps

Trade
3%
Yes 7¢No 98¢
5¢
N/A
$6,164
0%
33%
$5,478
5mo 2d
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
3%
Yes 3.1¢No 97.8¢
0.9¢
$54,491
$2,289
0%
27%
N/A
5mo 2d
active
predict

50+ bps increase

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,785
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3%
Yes 5.1¢No 97.9¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5¢
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision following the January 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Markets resolve based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to the level prior to the meeting.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same resolution logic based on the FOMC statement and Federal Reserve website for the January 2027 meetingPrimary resolution logic: FOMC statement after the January 26-27, 2027 meeting and Federal Reserve official website

Core resolution logic:

  • Change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is measured against the level prior to the January 2027 meeting
  • Changes are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points (e.g., 12.5 bps becomes 25 bps)
  • Markets resolve as soon as the FOMC statement with relevant data is issued

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No statement by next meeting: Markets resolve to the No Change bracket if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting
  • Non-standard change: Changes not expressed in options are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points
Timing: As soon as the FOMC statement for the January meeting with relevant data is issuedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the Federal Reserve's official action on the specified date. The possible outcomes are mutually exclusive: a rate cut of 25 basis points, a cut exceeding 25 basis points, maintaining the current rate (0 basis points change), a rate increase of 25 basis points, or an increase exceeding 25 basis points. Only one outcome resolves to Yes. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, the "Fed maintains rate" outcome resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.