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Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
polymarket

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Dec 31, 2025, 12:12 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$142,839
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$1,148
1%
Open interest:
$5,812N/A

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

 - Polymarket

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

3%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 3.3¢ buys you 3,030 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $3,030 | Net Profit: $2,930 Multiplier: 30.30x | ROI: 2,930% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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polymarket

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Trade
3%
Yes 3.3¢No 97.9¢
1.2¢
$1,148
$142,839
0%
0.03%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 1

Description

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Polymarket

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants assign a 2.7% chance to the event of a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in the US before Jan 1, 2027. This contrasts with typical analyst forecasts, which often rely on complex climate models and historical data. While analysts may provide probabilistic estimates, this market represents a different form of forecasting – one based on the wisdom of the crowd and the incentives of traders. Discrepancies between the two can reveal areas of disagreement or unique insights held by market participants.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as perceived by the market. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a Category 5 hurricane will make landfall, the higher the price of shares will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market constantly reflects the latest information and collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the National Hurricane Center (or a similar authoritative body) officially records a Category 5 hurricane making landfall within the continental United States before the resolution date. The determination will be based on publicly available data and established meteorological standards, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Increased activity in the Atlantic hurricane season, particularly the formation of strong tropical storms, would likely drive up prices. Conversely, forecasts predicting a below-average hurricane season could lower prices. Major shifts in climate patterns, such as El Niño or La Niña, could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any significant advancements in hurricane forecasting technology or changes in building codes in vulnerable coastal areas could also move this market as new information becomes available.