TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$136,531,341
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,197,913,311
339,027
Markets across
34,284
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Before Nov 1, 2026
- Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Climate and Weather
When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?
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Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Description
This event group determines whether any Category 5 hurricane will make landfall in the United States before the end of 2026. A Category 5 hurricane is defined as having maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, and landfall occurs when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Divergence in timing and scope criteria for resolutionHero tip: Focus on storms that both form and make landfall before December 31, 2026 to ensure consistent resolution across platforms. Storms forming before Kalshi deadlines but making landfall after Polymarket's deadline could cause discrepancies.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane before December 31, 2026, based on NHC advisories.
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if a Category 5 hurricane forms in the Atlantic before specific dates in 2026 (Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1, or Dec 1, 2026).
Polymarket
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Kalshi
This event assesses whether a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane—defined as having sustained wind speeds of at least 157 mph—will form before any of four specified dates in 2026, ranging from September 1 to December 1. The market resolves to Yes if such an extreme storm occurs before any of these deadlines. Each rule provides a successive cutoff point through the latter part of the hurricane season, allowing participants to evaluate the likelihood of an intense storm forming at progressively later stages. As with all hurricane-related events, the outcome hinges solely on whether a storm meeting these exact wind-speed criteria develops before one of the defined dates.