TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$101,900,907

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,178,729,067

335,697

Markets across

33,528

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,579

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
polymarket
kalshi

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Total volume:
$161,140
Volume 24h:
$1,073
137%
Liquidity:
$3,563
7%
Open interest:
$5,819
21%

1520

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

11%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 12¢ buys you 833 shares | Odds: 11% Total Payout: $833 | Net Profit: $733 Multiplier: 8.33x | ROI: 733% APY not meaningful 33 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1520

Trade
11%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
$1,157
$28,947
0%
2%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
kalshi

above 1500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
1mo 3d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
5.5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
Avg: 51¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

1530

Trade
4%
Yes 6¢No 97.7¢
3.7¢
$1,168
$21,119
0%
1%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
kalshi

above 1495

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$464
N/A
N/A
$328
1mo 3d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 3¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 51.9¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

1540

Trade
3%
Yes 4.7¢No 98.5¢
3.2¢
$600
$10,753
0%
2%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
kalshi

above 1490

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$882
N/A
N/A
$490
1mo 3d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 51.6¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

1550

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
$638
$11,875
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
kalshi

above 1485

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$678
N/A
N/A
$578
1mo 3d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 50.5¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

1510

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$80,743
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

above 1480

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,793
N/A
N/A
$1,100
1mo 3d
No
kalshi

above 1460

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,603
N/A
N/A
$1,474
1mo 3d
No
kalshi

above 1465

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,103
N/A
N/A
$691
1mo 3d
No
kalshi

above 1475

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$596
N/A
N/A
$581
1mo 3d
No
kalshi

above 1470

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$582
N/A
N/A
$577
1mo 3d
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This group of markets assesses whether any AI model will achieve specific Overall Arena Scores on the Arena.AI Leaderboard by September 30, 2026. The markets differ in their target scores and, in some cases, the specific model being considered.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold and Scope DivergenceHero tip: Traders should be cautious about the different resolution criteria. Polymarket markets are broader and include any AI model, while Kalshi markets are specific to Grok 4.6 and use a different scoring metric.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Any AI model must reach or exceed the specified Overall Arena Score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard by September 30, 2026. Source: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at arena.ai/leaderboard/text.
  • Kalshi: Only Grok 4.6 is considered, and it must exceed specific thresholds on the Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) before September 30, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on Grok 4.6’s performance on the Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) evaluation before September 30, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from above 1460 to above 1500. If Grok 4.6 achieves any of these thresholds before the deadline, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. When multiple qualifying models are introduced, the highest score among them determines resolution, and only the initial qualifying model’s submissions are considered. The markets are independent, with each representing a unique performance benchmark, and all operate under the same evaluation framework and timing constraints.