TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$101,900,907
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,178,729,067
335,697
Markets across
33,528
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,579
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
October 31
all
3 markets
Predict
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 1, 2026
Related News
Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026?
$
Description
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The markets have different resolution criteria: Polymarket focuses on any Mythos-class model release, while Kalshi focuses specifically on the release of Opus 6.Hero tip: Traders should verify which specific model is being released and ensure it matches the criteria for each platform. A release of a Mythos-class model that is not Opus 6 will resolve Polymarket markets but not Kalshi markets, and vice versa.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves if Anthropic releases any model officially named or described as "Mythos-class" and makes it publicly accessible by the end of the specified month.
- Kalshi: Resolves if Anthropic releases Opus 6 before the specified date.
Polymarket
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Anthropic will publicly release its Opus 6 AI model within any of five specified timeframes ending between September 1, 2026 and November 1, 2026. A resolving 'Yes' outcome requires that the release be made generally available to the public, meaning it cannot remain confined to closed beta testing. However, the model may be launched behind a paywall or restricted to high-cost subscription plans without affecting resolution criteria. All five market dates share identical secondary conditions regarding public accessibility standards.
Predict
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.