TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$91,248,924
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,163,520,955
334,440
Markets across
33,346
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,559
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
October 31
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Science and Technology
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
$
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets use identical release criteria (public accessibility requirement) with only date thresholds differingPrimary resolution logic: Official Google announcements and public accessibility verificationCore resolution logic:
- Gemini 4.0 must be explicitly named or recognized as successor to Gemini 3
- Must be publicly accessible (open beta/rolling waitlist), not closed beta
- Must be announced by Google as generally accessible to public
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Version labeling errors: Placeholder text or incorrect version labels on website don't qualify if model isn't actually accessible
- Gemini 3.0 Flash: Does not count as Gemini 4.0 even if released on or before date
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if Google publicly releases Gemini 4 before any of the specified dates ranging from September 16, 2026, to January 1, 2027. A public release requires the model to be available to users outside of closed beta testing; however, it may be accessible only through a high-cost subscription tier. Each date serves as a separate resolution point, meaning the market will close and resolve as Yes if the release occurs before any of these deadlines. If no public release occurs before January 1, 2027, the market resolves to No.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.